PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC St. PauliWerder Bremen
Shots4 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession42%58%
Corners1 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲6 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible away split

moderate

Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC St. Pauli
0Draws
1Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 3 · 6 too close

0.96 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/231 goals/match
1.74 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.91 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲13.3 shots/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2313.8 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲4.09 shots/match
5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/235.61 shots/match
45.2%Possessionseason · 23/2351.1%
4.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.57 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/234.96 corners/match
1.52 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232.7 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2310 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲17%
61%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2357%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli19.4
Werder Bremen58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli3.7
Werder Bremen40.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli49.1
Werder Bremen22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli8.3
Werder Bremen58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli27.8
Werder Bremen62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli47.2
Werder Bremen36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli23.6
Werder Bremen45.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
41.6%Possession5/557.4%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.2 shots/match
3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
41%Possession10/1053.5%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
0.96 goals/matchGoals scored23/231 goals/match
1.74 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots23/23▲13.3 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲4.09 shots/match
45.2%Possession23/2351.1%
4.7 corners/matchCorners23/234.57 corners/match
1.52 cards/matchCards23/232.7 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls23/2310 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
1.18 goals/match▲Goals scored11/120.92 goals/match
1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots11/1211.2 shots/match
4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target11/123.83 shots/match
47.3%Possession11/1250.1%
5.91 corners/matchCorners11/124.58 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards11/122.58 cards/match
9.91 fouls/matchFouls11/1210.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.08 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC St. PauliWerder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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