PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeWeserstadionFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWerder Bremen1. FC Heidenheim
Shots17 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners3 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible home split

moderate

Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Werder Bremen have recorded the higher season possession share.

51%▲PossessionWerder Bremen · 1. FC Heidenheim42.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricWerder Bremen1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Possession51%42.3%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Werder Bremen
1Draws
01. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — Werder Bremen · Bundesliga2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Werder Bremen favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 1 · 6 too close

1.04 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/240.92 goals/match
1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/242.21 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2411.8 shots/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2415.4 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/243.46 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/245.75 shots/match
51%Possessionseason · 24/2442.3%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/244.71 corners/match
4.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/244.96 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/24▲1.58 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2410.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/240%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2458%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Werder Bremen58.3
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Werder Bremen41.7
1. FC Heidenheim12.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Werder Bremen27.8
1. FC Heidenheim2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Werder Bremen58.3
1. FC Heidenheim75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen62.5
1. FC Heidenheim33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen36.1
1. FC Heidenheim52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Werder Bremen47.2
1. FC Heidenheim33.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots5/513.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
55.4%Possession5/543.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲0.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.3 shots/match
3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.1 shots/match
54.7%Possession10/1041.5%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.04 goals/match▲Goals scored24/240.92 goals/match
1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/242.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots24/2411.8 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target24/243.46 shots/match
51%Possession24/2442.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners24/244.71 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards24/241.58 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls24/2410.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.75 goals/match
1.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123 shots/match
51.9%Possession12/1244.4%
4.42 corners/matchCorners12/124.58 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards12/121.92 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.83 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWerder Bremen1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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