PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05
Shots12 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession66%34%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.17 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.17 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

60%▲PossessionBayer Leverkusen · FSV Mainz 0544.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession60%44.3%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayer Leverkusen
0Draws
0FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga3–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 1 · 4 too close

1.91 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/241.13 goals/match
1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/241.63 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2411.3 shots/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2414.8 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/243.63 shots/match
4.65 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/245.25 shots/match
60%Possessionseason · 23/2444.3%
5.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/245.08 corners/match
4.52 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/24▲4.25 corners/match
2.26 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/242.63 cards/match
8.78 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2411.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/248%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2463%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen91.7
FSV Mainz 0513.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen69.4
FSV Mainz 0516.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen73.2
FSV Mainz 0529.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen8.3
FSV Mainz 0541.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen38.9
FSV Mainz 0576.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen63.9
FSV Mainz 0558.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen52.8
FSV Mainz 0538.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
63.6%Possession5/538.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.1 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
60.4%Possession10/1042.8%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 24 matches
1.91 goals/match▲Goals scored23/241.13 goals/match
1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/241.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots23/2411.3 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target23/243.63 shots/match
60%Possession23/2444.3%
5.13 corners/matchCorners23/245.08 corners/match
2.26 cards/matchCards23/242.63 cards/match
8.78 fouls/matchFouls23/2411.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.17 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots12/129.17 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.5 shots/match
61.9%Possession12/1239.9%
6 corners/matchCorners12/123.67 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards12/123 cards/match
8.83 fouls/matchFouls12/1211 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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