PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFSV Mainz 05VfB Stuttgart
Shots17 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession38%62%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsFSV Mainz 05 · VfB Stuttgart15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFSV Mainz 05VfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match15.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FSV Mainz 05
0Draws
2VfB Stuttgart
FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart · DFB Pokal0–2
VfB Stuttgart — FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 9 · 5 too close

1.16 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲2 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲15.1 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲12.4 shots/match
3.72 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲5.96 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲4.36 shots/match
44%Possessionseason · 25/2558.5%
5.08 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255.4 corners/match
4.32 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/254.12 corners/match
2.52 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲2 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/259.72 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲36%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0513.9
VfB Stuttgart86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0519.4
VfB Stuttgart85.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0532.4
VfB Stuttgart70.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0547.2
VfB Stuttgart41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0572.2
VfB Stuttgart41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0561.1
VfB Stuttgart86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0538.2
VfB Stuttgart73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
40.2%Possession5/563.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.5 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.7 shots/match
41.3%Possession10/1059.9%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲2 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots25/25▲15.1 shots/match
3.72 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲5.96 shots/match
44%Possession25/2558.5%
5.08 corners/matchCorners25/255.4 corners/match
2.52 cards/matchCards25/252 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls25/259.72 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.15 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2.23 goals/match
1.23 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots13/1314.1 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲5.77 shots/match
47.8%Possession13/1360.1%
6.38 corners/matchCorners13/135.69 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards13/131.85 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFSV Mainz 05VfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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