PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Mewa Arena

1. FSV Mainz 05 2–2 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart drew 2–2.

Shots
1811
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
2.840.98
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (FSV Mainz 05 – VfB Stuttgart): shots 18–11, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 2.84–0.98, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsFSV Mainz 05 · VfB Stuttgart15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFSV Mainz 05VfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match15.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots11 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 18 shots, VfB Stuttgart 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 6 shots, VfB Stuttgart 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.84 xG0.98 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 2.84 xG, VfB Stuttgart 0.98 xG
  • Possession38%62%1. FSV Mainz 05 38%, VfB Stuttgart 62%
  • Corners5 corners6 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 5 corners, VfB Stuttgart 6 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls12 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 7 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cards1. FSV Mainz 05 0 cards, VfB Stuttgart 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart · 18′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 4′ · 0.04 xG · on targetErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · FSV Mainz 05 · 50′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNikolas Nartey · VfB Stuttgart · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 76′ · 0.06 xG · goalDanny da Costa · FSV Mainz 05 · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 66′ · 0.07 xG · on targetTiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 48′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 24′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 63′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · FSV Mainz 05 · 32′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 26′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 66′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · FSV Mainz 05 · 55′ · 0.26 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 38′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.27 xG · goalPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 30′ · 0.28 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 77′ · 0.42 xG · goalDanny da Costa · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.69 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FSV Mainz 05: 18 shots, 6 on target, 2.99 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.96 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Jae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 39′Danny da Costa · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′Ermedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 76′Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FSV Mainz 05 2.99 xG · VfB Stuttgart 0.96 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FSV Mainz 05
1Draws
3VfB Stuttgart
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart · DFB Pokal0–2
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–0
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–3
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0525 matchesVfB Stuttgart25 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 2 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.36 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.69 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 15.2 shots/match
3.72 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.96 shots/match
44%Possession25/25● 58.6%
5.08 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.4 corners/match
2.52 cards/matchCards25/252 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls25/259.72 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05VfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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