PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeEuropa-Park-StadionFull-time recap
3–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSC FreiburgBayer Leverkusen
Shots22 shots/match▲17 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners5 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bayer Leverkusen. A second useful context is: SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bayer Leverkusen.

5.92 days▲Rest daysSC Freiburg · Bayer Leverkusen2.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSC FreiburgBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Rest days5.92 days2.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

moderate

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0SC Freiburg
0Draws
1Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 7 · 5 too close

1.48 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲1.92 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.28 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲13.8 shots/match
13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲12.1 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲4.56 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/254.76 shots/match
47.5%Possessionseason · 25/2559.8%
4.48 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255.08 corners/match
4.12 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.44 corners/match
1.72 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.28 cards/match
9.52 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/258.84 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲28%
72%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg52.8
Bayer Leverkusen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg45.4
Bayer Leverkusen69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg45.4
Bayer Leverkusen67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg52.8
Bayer Leverkusen8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg30.6
Bayer Leverkusen38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg25
Bayer Leverkusen61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg32
Bayer Leverkusen52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.4 shots/match
38.6%Possession5/563%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
42.2%Possession10/1060.3%
3.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/108.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.48 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲1.92 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.28 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots25/25▲13.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲4.56 shots/match
47.5%Possession25/2559.8%
4.48 corners/matchCorners25/255.08 corners/match
1.72 cards/matchCards25/252.28 cards/match
9.52 fouls/matchFouls25/258.84 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 13 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored12/131.77 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1312.3 shots/match
5.42 shots/match▲Shots on target12/133.69 shots/match
51.3%Possession12/1357.9%
4.92 corners/matchCorners12/134.23 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards12/132.38 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls12/138.85 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSC FreiburgBayer Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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