PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SVBayer Leverkusen
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession37%63%
Corners2 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Hamburger SV. A second useful context is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Hamburger SV.

3.04 days▲Rest daysHamburger SV · Bayer Leverkusen4.21 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHamburger SVBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Rest days3.04 days4.21 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.8%▲PossessionHamburger SV · Bayer Leverkusen60.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Possession46.8%60.1%47.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 8 · 6 too close

1.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/24▲1.88 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/24▲13.7 shots/match
13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲11.7 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/244.54 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/244.58 shots/match
46.8%Possessionseason · 24/2460.1%
3.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/245.21 corners/match
5.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲4.42 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/24▲2.25 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/248.88 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲29%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV41.7
Bayer Leverkusen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV45.3
Bayer Leverkusen67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV46.3
Bayer Leverkusen75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV63.9
Bayer Leverkusen8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV86.1
Bayer Leverkusen38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV8.3
Bayer Leverkusen66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV52.8
Bayer Leverkusen53.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.8 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/564.6%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots10/1012.7 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
46.4%Possession10/1060.6%
3.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲1.88 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots24/24▲13.7 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target24/244.54 shots/match
46.8%Possession24/2460.1%
3.79 corners/matchCorners24/245.21 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards24/242.25 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls24/248.88 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 12 matches
1.46 goals/matchGoals scored13/12▲1.67 goals/match
1.23 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/121.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots13/1211.9 shots/match
5.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/123.58 shots/match
45.1%Possession13/1258.3%
3.69 corners/matchCorners13/124.42 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards13/122.33 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls13/128.92 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.21 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SVBayer Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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