Hamburger SV
Bundesliga · 2025Hamburger SV 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga
A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.
Match at a glance
Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 0–1.
- Shots
- 10–14
- Shots on target
- 3–4
- Expected goals
- 1.27–1.93
- Possession
- 37%–63%
Full time
What the match recorded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Hamburger SV 1–0. Recorded in this match (Hamburger SV – Bayer Leverkusen): shots 10–14, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.27–1.93, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Recent scheduling adds useful context
weakA compressed recent schedule is recorded for Hamburger SV.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.
Window: previous 14 days
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Bayer Leverkusen | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest days | 3.04 days | 4.21 days | — |
| Matches last 14 days | 2 matches | 2 matches | — |
Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.
Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season
moderateHamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.4 goals/match | 1.08 goals/match | 1.38 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
The teams have contrasting possession records
strongBayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.4 percentage points.
Window: season
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Bayer Leverkusen | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Possession | 46.8% | 60.2% | 47.3% |
Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.
This match
Match statistics
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
- off target
- on target
- goal
- penalty
- size = xG
Hamburger SV: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.45 xG. Bayer Leverkusen: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.92 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hamburger SV 1.45 xG · Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 xG.
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 9 · 2 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 2 matches
Hamburger SV / Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- The fixture is outside the configured active season.
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
More football
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Make a graphic from this match
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