PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 6 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern MünchenBorussia Mönchengladbach
Shots18 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Borussia Mönchengladbach's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.9 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · Borussia Mönchengladbach11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenBorussia MönchengladbachBaseline
Shots18.9 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against9.8 shots/match14.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Mönchengladbach's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.12 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

66.7%▲PossessionBayern München · Borussia Mönchengladbach45.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenBorussia MönchengladbachBaseline
Possession66.7%45.9%47.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayern München
0Draws
0Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach — Bayern München · Bundesliga0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Mönchengladbach in 1 · 5 too close

3.68 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.12 goals/match
0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.72 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
18.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2511.6 shots/match
9.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2514.5 shots/match
8.8 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/254.16 shots/match
2.56 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/255.6 shots/match
66.7%Possessionseason · 25/2545.9%
6.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.28 corners/match
3.36 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.72 corners/match
1.68 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.48 cards/match
9.12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2536%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach26.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München86.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München25
Borussia Mönchengladbach30.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München97.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München76.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.8 shots/match▲Shots5/514.4 shots/match
9.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
61.6%Possession5/549.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
3.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.6 shots/match
9.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104 shots/match
64.8%Possession10/1045.3%
6.8 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
0.9 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
3.68 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.12 goals/match
0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.9 shots/match▲Shots25/2511.6 shots/match
8.8 shots/match▲Shots on target25/254.16 shots/match
66.7%Possession25/2545.9%
6.2 corners/matchCorners25/254.28 corners/match
1.68 cards/matchCards25/251.48 cards/match
9.12 fouls/matchFouls25/2511 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
4 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.08 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.4 shots/match▲Shots13/1311.5 shots/match
9.15 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.08 shots/match
66.5%Possession13/1345.5%
6.85 corners/matchCorners13/134.46 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards13/131.54 cards/match
9.31 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.21 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 6 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern MünchenBorussia Mönchengladbach
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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