PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfL WolfsburgHamburger SV
Shots14 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession52%48%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Hamburger SV. A second useful context is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Hamburger SV.

6 days▲Rest daysVfL Wolfsburg · Hamburger SV2.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVfL WolfsburgHamburger SVBaseline
Rest days6 days2.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

weak

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.12 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

11.7 fouls/match▲FoulsVfL Wolfsburg · Hamburger SV12 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgHamburger SVBaseline
Fouls11.7 fouls/match12 fouls/match10.6 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
0Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 7 · 4 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.12 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.44 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲12.7 shots/match
15.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲13.9 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲4.76 shots/match
5.72 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲4.64 shots/match
46.2%Possessionseason · 25/2546.8%
3.84 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/253.76 corners/match
7.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲5.32 corners/match
2.04 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.6 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2512 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
4%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲24%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2564%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg36.1
Hamburger SV47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg34.3
Hamburger SV46.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg6.5
Hamburger SV50.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg25
Hamburger SV63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg65.2
Hamburger SV86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg8.3
Hamburger SV2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg32.6
Hamburger SV51.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/510.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
41.2%Possession5/547.6%
4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
2.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.2 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
46.8%Possession10/1047.2%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.12 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots25/25▲12.7 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲4.76 shots/match
46.2%Possession25/2546.8%
3.84 corners/matchCorners25/253.76 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCards25/252.6 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls25/2512 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 12 matches
1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/120.75 goals/match
2.15 goals/matchGoals allowed13/12▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots13/1211.7 shots/match
4.62 shots/matchShots on target13/124.42 shots/match
49.3%Possession13/1248.7%
4.85 corners/matchCorners13/123.83 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards13/122.83 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls13/1212.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfL WolfsburgHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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