PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfB StuttgartVfL Wolfsburg
Shots24 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession63%37%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsVfB Stuttgart · VfL Wolfsburg11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match15.7 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.4%▲PossessionVfB Stuttgart · VfL Wolfsburg46%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Possession58.4%46%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1VfB Stuttgart
0Draws
0VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 0 · 5 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.38 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/242.21 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2411.5 shots/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2415.7 shots/match
6.04 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/243.92 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/245.67 shots/match
58.4%Possessionseason · 24/2446%
5.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/243.71 corners/match
4.08 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/247.63 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/242 cards/match
9.63 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2411.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/244%
92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2479%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart86.1
VfL Wolfsburg25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart85.2
VfL Wolfsburg29.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart73.1
VfL Wolfsburg5.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart52.8
VfL Wolfsburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart41.7
VfL Wolfsburg59.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart86.1
VfL Wolfsburg2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart72.9
VfL Wolfsburg26.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
64.6%Possession5/542.4%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
58.4%Possession10/1047.2%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.38 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/242.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots24/2411.5 shots/match
6.04 shots/match▲Shots on target24/243.92 shots/match
58.4%Possession24/2446%
5.38 corners/matchCorners24/243.71 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards24/242 cards/match
9.63 fouls/matchFouls24/2411.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.17 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.1 shots/match
6.17 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.17 shots/match
56.8%Possession12/1242.9%
5.08 corners/matchCorners12/122.75 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards12/121.92 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfB StuttgartVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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