PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SVRB Leipzig
Shots7 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners4 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsHamburger SV · RB Leipzig16.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match16.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against13.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Hamburger SV
0Draws
1RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 10 · 4 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/24▲1.92 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/24▲1.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/24▲16.1 shots/match
13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/24▲11.9 shots/match
4.74 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/24▲5.67 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/24▲3.92 shots/match
47.2%Possessionseason · 23/2453.8%
3.87 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/245.5 corners/match
5.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/24▲4.38 corners/match
2.74 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/24▲1.5 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/249.29 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/24▲38%
65%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/24▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV47.2
RB Leipzig75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV50.9
RB Leipzig82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV45.4
RB Leipzig76.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV63.9
RB Leipzig91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV88.9
RB Leipzig12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV8.3
RB Leipzig91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV54.1
RB Leipzig72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
46.6%Possession5/561%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲16 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match
46.8%Possession10/1058.3%
4 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 24 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored23/24▲1.92 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed23/24▲1.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots23/24▲16.1 shots/match
4.74 shots/matchShots on target23/24▲5.67 shots/match
47.2%Possession23/2453.8%
3.87 corners/matchCorners23/245.5 corners/match
2.74 cards/matchCards23/241.5 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls23/249.29 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.58 goals/matchGoals scored12/121.58 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots12/12▲15 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.58 shots/match
45.8%Possession12/1253.5%
3.83 corners/matchCorners12/125.25 corners/match
2.58 cards/matchCards12/121.75 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SVRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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