PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 24 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer 04 LeverkusenOlympiacos FC
Shots7 shots/match7 shots/match
Shots on target1 shots/match1 shots/match
Expected goals0.69 xG/match▲0.21 xG/match
Possession47%53%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gelson Martins · Olympiacos FC · 50′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndré Luiz · Olympiacos FC · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Scipioni · Olympiacos FC · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChiquinho · Olympiacos FC · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGelson Martins · Olympiacos FC · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRobert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodinei · Olympiacos FC · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndré Luiz · Olympiacos FC · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 62′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 6′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.67 xG. Olympiacos FC: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.67 xG · Olympiacos FC 0.21 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer 04 Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Olympiacos FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsBayer 04 Leverkusen · Olympiacos FC12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayer 04 LeverkusenOlympiacos FCBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Olympiacos FC have a visible away split

moderate

Olympiacos FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.4%▲PossessionBayer 04 Leverkusen · Olympiacos FC42.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer 04 LeverkusenOlympiacos FCBaseline
Possession52.4%42.9%50.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0Draws
1Olympiacos FC
Olympiacos FC — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · UEFA Champions League0–2
Olympiacos FC — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · UEFA Champions League2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer 04 Leverkusen favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Olympiacos FC in 2 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/101 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.6 goals/match
1.51 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/101.07 xG/match
1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/101.48 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲12.6 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲10.9 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/103.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/103.9 shots/match
52.4%Possessionseason · 10/1042.9%
4.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/104.4 corners/match
4.4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/104.2 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
8.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1040%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen65.5
Olympiacos FC15.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen36.4
Olympiacos FC25.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen59.5
Olympiacos FC65.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen15.5
Olympiacos FC60.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen8.3
Olympiacos FC51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen46.4
Olympiacos FC36.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen29.1
Olympiacos FC36.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.01 xG/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
58.6%Possession5/542.6%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.07 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1042.9%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.07 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1042.9%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.91 xG/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/541.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
7.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 25 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer 04 LeverkusenOlympiacos FC
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match