PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 24 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeSt James' ParkFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastle UnitedQarabağ
Shots19 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Expected goals2.78 xG/match▲1.3 xG/match
Possession66%34%
Corners9 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Matheus Silva · Qarabağ · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoni Montiel · Qarabağ · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSven Botman · Newcastle United · 41′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPedro Bicalho · Qarabağ · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdellah Zoubir · Qarabağ · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBədavi Hüseynov · Qarabağ · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoe Willock · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMusa Qurbanlı · Qarabağ · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 80′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCamilo Durán · Qarabağ · 50′ · 0.05 xG · goalElvin Cafarquliyev · Qarabağ · 57′ · 0.05 xG · goalElvin Cafarquliyev · Qarabağ · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 66′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAbdellah Zoubir · Qarabağ · 59′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMusa Qurbanlı · Qarabağ · 85′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDan Burn · Newcastle United · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSven Botman · Newcastle United · 52′ · 0.09 xG · goalNick Woltemade · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · Newcastle United · 67′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · Newcastle United · 75′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDan Burn · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetCamilo Durán · Qarabağ · 41′ · 0.17 xG · on targetJoe Willock · Newcastle United · 75′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAlex Murphy · Newcastle United · 76′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Osula · Newcastle United · 4′ · 0.31 xG · on targetSandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 5′ · 0.39 xG · goalJoelinton · Newcastle United · 6′ · 0.44 xG · goalJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 36′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedMarko Janković · Qarabağ · 57′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 19 shots, 8 on target, 2.84 xG. Qarabağ: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Sandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 5′Joelinton · Newcastle United · 6′Sven Botman · Newcastle United · 52′Camilo Durán · Qarabağ · 50′Elvin Cafarquliyev · Qarabağ · 57′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.84 xG · Qarabağ 1.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Qarabağ's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle United · Qarabağ10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNewcastle UnitedQarabağBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against14.2 shots/match18 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Qarabağ's recent record differs from the season

weak

Qarabağ's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.94 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Newcastle United
0Draws
0Qarabağ
Qarabağ — Newcastle United · UEFA Champions League1–6

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Qarabağ in 0 · 4 too close

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/161.94 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/162.19 goals/match
2.36 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/101.09 xG/match
1.11 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/102.73 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1210.3 shots/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1218 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/123.92 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/126.75 shots/match
50.6%Possessionseason · 10/1245.2%
5.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/123.83 corners/match
6.4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/126.58 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
8.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/127.17 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1625%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1688%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United48.8
Qarabağ20.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 75%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United80.3
Qarabağ36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 83%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United53.8
Qarabağ10.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 83%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United56
Qarabağ20.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 75%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United10.7
Qarabağ1.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 38%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United72.6
Qarabağ21.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 75%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United58
Qarabağ15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 75%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/54.2 goals/match
2.79 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.97 xG/match
15 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
52%Possession5/545%
5 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/55.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/103 goals/match
2.36 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.09 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
50.6%Possession10/1044.5%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/106.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 16 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/161.94 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/162.19 goals/match
2.36 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.09 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1210.3 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/123.92 shots/match
50.6%Possession10/1245.2%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/123.83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/127.17 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 8 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/81.63 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/82.13 goals/match
2.15 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.81 xG/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/69.83 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/63.83 shots/match
53.4%Possession5/644.3%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/63.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/65.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.09 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 25 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastle UnitedQarabağ
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match