PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025St James' Park

Newcastle United 3–2 Qarabag · UEFA Champions League

3–2Historical match

Qarabag

LLWLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Newcastle United won 3–2.

Shots
1913
Shots on target
86
Expected goals
2.781.3
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Newcastle United beat Qarabağ 3–2. Recorded in this match (Newcastle United – Qarabağ): shots 19–13, shots on target 8–6, expected goals 2.78–1.3, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsNewcastle United · Qarabağ10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNewcastle UnitedQarabağBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against14.2 shots/match18 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Qarabağ's recent record differs from the season

weak

Qarabağ's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.94 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots13 shotsNewcastle United 19 shots, Qarabag 13 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots6 shotsNewcastle United 8 shots, Qarabag 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.78 xG1.3 xGNewcastle United 2.78 xG, Qarabag 1.3 xG
  • Possession66%34%Newcastle United 66%, Qarabag 34%
  • Corners9 corners6 cornersNewcastle United 9 corners, Qarabag 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls4 foulsNewcastle United 10 fouls, Qarabag 4 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matheus Silva · Qarabağ · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoni Montiel · Qarabağ · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSven Botman · Newcastle United · 41′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPedro Bicalho · Qarabağ · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdellah Zoubir · Qarabağ · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBədavi Hüseynov · Qarabağ · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoe Willock · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMusa Qurbanlı · Qarabağ · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 80′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCamilo Durán · Qarabağ · 50′ · 0.05 xG · goalElvin Cafarquliyev · Qarabağ · 57′ · 0.05 xG · goalElvin Cafarquliyev · Qarabağ · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 66′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAbdellah Zoubir · Qarabağ · 59′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMusa Qurbanlı · Qarabağ · 85′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDan Burn · Newcastle United · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSven Botman · Newcastle United · 52′ · 0.09 xG · goalNick Woltemade · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · Newcastle United · 67′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · Newcastle United · 75′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDan Burn · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetCamilo Durán · Qarabağ · 41′ · 0.17 xG · on targetJoe Willock · Newcastle United · 75′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAlex Murphy · Newcastle United · 76′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Osula · Newcastle United · 4′ · 0.31 xG · on targetSandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 5′ · 0.39 xG · goalJoelinton · Newcastle United · 6′ · 0.44 xG · goalJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 36′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedMarko Janković · Qarabağ · 57′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 19 shots, 8 on target, 2.84 xG. Qarabağ: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Sandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 5′Joelinton · Newcastle United · 6′Sven Botman · Newcastle United · 52′Camilo Durán · Qarabağ · 50′Elvin Cafarquliyev · Qarabağ · 57′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.84 xG · Qarabağ 1.40 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Newcastle United
0Draws
0Qarabag
Qarabag — Newcastle United · UEFA Champions League1–6

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Newcastle United favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Qarabag in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Newcastle United10 matchesQarabag16 matches
2.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/161.94 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed10/162.19 goals/match
2.36 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.09 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots10/1210.3 shots/match
7 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/123.92 shots/match
50.6% ●Possession10/1245.2%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners10/123.83 corners/match
8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/127.17 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 25 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNewcastle UnitedQarabag
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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