Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap

RB Leipzig

WDLWD

2–2Full-time recap

Borussia Dortmund

WWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	RB Leipzig	Borussia Dortmund
Shots	13 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Possession	55%	45%
Corners	6 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	17 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match▲	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	2.13 goals/match	1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0RB Leipzig

1Draws

0Borussia Dortmund

4 Oct 2025Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 6 · 5 too close

1.91 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲2.13 goals/match

1.39 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲0.96 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

16.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2313.1 shots/match

12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲10.8 shots/match

5.7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/234.91 shots/match

3.96 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.35 shots/match

53.6%Possessionseason · 23/2353.6%

5.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.3 corners/match

4.39 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/234.61 corners/match

1.48 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232 cards/match

9.17 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

39%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲48%

91%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig75

Borussia Dortmund69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig82.4

Borussia Dortmund74.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig76.8

Borussia Dortmund91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig91.7

Borussia Dortmund19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig12.5

Borussia Dortmund59.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig83.3

Borussia Dortmund75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig69.5

Borussia Dortmund70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.8 shots/matchShots5/516 shots/match

5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/55.4 shots/match

60.2%Possession5/554.8%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match

8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.6 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.3 shots/match

5.5 shots/matchShots on target10/105.5 shots/match

58.8%Possession10/1054.3%

4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match

1.3 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match

8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches

1.91 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲2.13 goals/match

1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲0.96 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.2 shots/match▲Shots23/2313.1 shots/match

5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target23/234.91 shots/match

53.6%Possession23/2353.6%

5.35 corners/matchCorners23/235.3 corners/match

1.48 cards/matchCards23/232 cards/match

9.17 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches

2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.92 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.17 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

17.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1212 shots/match

6.75 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.17 shots/match

54.1%Possession12/1251.3%

5.75 corners/matchCorners12/123.58 corners/match

1.25 cards/matchCards12/122.42 cards/match

8.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1212 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.92 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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