PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
8–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern MünchenVfL Wolfsburg
Shots16 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.5 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · VfL Wolfsburg11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Shots19.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against8.63 shots/match15 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

68%▲PossessionBayern München · VfL Wolfsburg45%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Possession68%45%48.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 1 · 4 too close

3.94 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.5 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/162.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1611.8 shots/match
8.63 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1615 shots/match
8.69 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.25 shots/match
1.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/165.38 shots/match
68%Possessionseason · 16/1645%
5.81 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.44 corners/match
3.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/167.75 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲1.94 cards/match
9.31 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/166%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
VfL Wolfsburg13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
VfL Wolfsburg37
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2
VfL Wolfsburg13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München86.1
VfL Wolfsburg47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München41.6
VfL Wolfsburg55.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München91.7
VfL Wolfsburg2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München76.4
VfL Wolfsburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
4.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.2 shots/match
9.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
73.2%Possession5/543.8%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/51.6 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
7.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
3.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match
8.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.6 shots/match
71.5%Possession10/1042.5%
6.3 corners/matchCorners10/102.6 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
8.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
3.94 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.5 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.5 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.8 shots/match
8.69 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.25 shots/match
68%Possession16/1645%
5.81 corners/matchCorners16/163.44 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCards16/161.94 cards/match
9.31 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
4.33 goals/match▲Goals scored9/81.38 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/82.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.1 shots/match▲Shots9/810 shots/match
8.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/83.38 shots/match
68.7%Possession9/843.4%
6.33 corners/matchCorners9/82.88 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/81.88 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls9/89.63 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/122.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern MünchenVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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