Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap

Bayer Leverkusen

WLLWW

1–4Full-time recap

VfB Stuttgart

DLLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bayer Leverkusen	VfB Stuttgart
Shots	16 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Possession	57%	43%
Corners	5 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	2.13 goals/match	1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 5 · 8 too close

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.81 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.44 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

14.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1615.2 shots/match

11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1612.1 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲5.56 shots/match

4.81 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.44 shots/match

59.4%Possessionseason · 16/1656.7%

5.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.5 corners/match

4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.31 corners/match

2.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲2 cards/match

9.06 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲38%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1688%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen91.7

VfB Stuttgart86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen84.3

VfB Stuttgart79.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen63.9

VfB Stuttgart64.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen30.6

VfB Stuttgart63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen44.4

VfB Stuttgart43.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen80.6

VfB Stuttgart86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen62.5

VfB Stuttgart72.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.4 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match

61%Possession5/552%

7.6 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match

2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/102.1 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16 shots/match▲Shots10/1015.2 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match

60.9%Possession10/1055.2%

5.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match

2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match

8.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.81 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.44 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.6 shots/matchShots16/1615.2 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5.56 shots/match

59.4%Possession16/1656.7%

5.25 corners/matchCorners16/165.5 corners/match

2.63 cards/matchCards16/162 cards/match

9.06 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches

2.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/92.22 goals/match

1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.6 shots/match▲Shots9/915.1 shots/match

5.56 shots/matchShots on target9/95.78 shots/match

62.1%Possession9/958.8%

5.89 corners/matchCorners9/96.11 corners/match

2.56 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match

9.33 fouls/matchFouls9/910.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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