PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025PreZero Arena

TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim won 1–0.

Shots
198
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
1.550.96
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

1899 Hoffenheim beat Bayer Leverkusen 1–0. Recorded in this match (1899 Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen): shots 19–8, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 1.55–0.96, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1899 Hoffenheim.

2.79 days ▲Rest days1899 Hoffenheim · Bayer Leverkusen6.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric1899 HoffenheimBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Rest days2.79 days6.88 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots8 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 19 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 8 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.55 xG0.96 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.55 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.96 xG
  • Possession38%62%TSG Hoffenheim 38%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 62%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 3 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls7 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 17 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardTSG Hoffenheim 2 cards, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ernest Poku · Bayer Leverkusen · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedErnest Poku · Bayer Leverkusen · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlbian Hajdari · 1899 Hoffenheim · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTim Lemperle · 1899 Hoffenheim · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · 1899 Hoffenheim · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeon Avdullahu · 1899 Hoffenheim · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVladimír Coufal · 1899 Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTim Lemperle · 1899 Hoffenheim · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMax Moerstedt · 1899 Hoffenheim · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJonas Hofmann · Bayer Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 9′ · 0.04 xG · goalFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 15′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMalik Tillman · Bayer Leverkusen · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 36′ · 0.06 xG · on targetTim Lemperle · 1899 Hoffenheim · 38′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 50′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVladimír Coufal · 1899 Hoffenheim · 52′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAndrej Kramarić · 1899 Hoffenheim · 78′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer Leverkusen · 68′ · 0.12 xG · on targetTim Lemperle · 1899 Hoffenheim · 78′ · 0.12 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 81′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 68′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedTim Lemperle · 1899 Hoffenheim · 61′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 12′ · 0.52 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 41′ · 0.52 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1899 Hoffenheim: 19 shots, 8 on target, 1.61 xG. Bayer Leverkusen: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Wouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 9′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.61 xG · Bayer Leverkusen 0.99 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1TSG Hoffenheim
0Draws
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga3–1
TSG Hoffenheim — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–4
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–1
TSG Hoffenheim — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 4 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim17 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen17 matches
2.06 goals/matchGoals scored17/172 goals/match
1.24 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/171.47 goals/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 1.77 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 14.2 shots/match
5.06 shots/matchShots on target17/174.82 shots/match
53.6%Possession17/17● 59.5%
5 corners/matchCorners17/17● 5.24 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards17/172.53 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls17/178.94 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG HoffenheimBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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