PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timePreZero ArenaFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen
Shots19 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession38%62%
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1899 Hoffenheim. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1899 Hoffenheim.

2.79 days▲Rest days1899 Hoffenheim · Bayer Leverkusen6.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric1899 HoffenheimBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Rest days2.79 days6.88 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

11899 Hoffenheim
0Draws
0Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen — 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1899 Hoffenheim favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 2 · 9 too close

2.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/172 goals/match
1.24 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.47 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲14.2 shots/match
11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/1712.1 shots/match
5.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/174.82 shots/match
4.24 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/175 shots/match
53.6%Possessionseason · 17/1759.5%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.24 corners/match
5.18 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲4.71 corners/match
1.88 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/172.53 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/178.94 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1724%
82%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1782%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1899 Hoffenheim80.6
Bayer Leverkusen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1899 Hoffenheim77.8
Bayer Leverkusen76.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1899 Hoffenheim84.3
Bayer Leverkusen62
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1899 Hoffenheim41.7
Bayer Leverkusen19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim72.2
Bayer Leverkusen44.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim61.1
Bayer Leverkusen80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1899 Hoffenheim76.4
Bayer Leverkusen61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
54.6%Possession5/560.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.8 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match
54.9%Possession10/1061.3%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls10/107.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
2.06 goals/matchGoals scored17/172 goals/match
1.24 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.47 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots17/17▲14.2 shots/match
5.06 shots/matchShots on target17/174.82 shots/match
53.6%Possession17/1759.5%
5 corners/matchCorners17/175.24 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards17/172.53 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls17/178.94 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored9/81.88 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/81.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots9/811.5 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/84 shots/match
54.3%Possession9/856.6%
5.67 corners/matchCorners9/84.5 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/82.5 cards/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls9/88.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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