PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfL WolfsburgUnion Berlin
Shots4 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession43%57%
Corners0 corners/match11 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: VfL Wolfsburg have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.4%▲PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · Union Berlin35.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgUnion BerlinBaseline
Possession45.4%35.9%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 4 · 6 too close

1.31 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131.23 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/131.69 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1312.3 shots/match
15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲13.2 shots/match
4.08 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133.54 shots/match
4.92 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲4.62 shots/match
45.4%Possessionseason · 13/1335.9%
3.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.46 corners/match
8.15 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲4.85 corners/match
2.15 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 13/132.31 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1313.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲23%
77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1362%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg19.4
Union Berlin2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg30.6
Union Berlin25.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg29.6
Union Berlin52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg63.9
Union Berlin97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg61.1
Union Berlin77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg8.3
Union Berlin75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg31.9
Union Berlin54.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲12 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
43%Possession5/540.8%
3 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots10/1012 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
44.3%Possession10/1036.5%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.31 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.23 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed13/131.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots13/1312.3 shots/match
4.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.54 shots/match
45.4%Possession13/1335.9%
3.69 corners/matchCorners13/135.46 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards13/132.31 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/61 goals/match
2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/6▲2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots7/612.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target7/63.67 shots/match
45.3%Possession7/637.2%
4.29 corners/matchCorners7/65 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/61.17 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls7/610.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfL WolfsburgUnion Berlin
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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