PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeWWK ArenaFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC AugsburgBayer Leverkusen
Shots13 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession32%68%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC Augsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.9%▲PossessionFC Augsburg · Bayer Leverkusen59.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC AugsburgBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Possession44.9%59.7%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 8 · 5 too close

1.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲2.15 goals/match
2.08 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.46 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲14.2 shots/match
14.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲11.8 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲4.77 shots/match
4.77 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/134.54 shots/match
44.9%Possessionseason · 13/1359.7%
4.15 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/134.85 corners/match
4.54 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/135.31 corners/match
3.08 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/13▲2.62 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/138.62 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲23%
77%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg13.9
Bayer Leverkusen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg38
Bayer Leverkusen80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg32.4
Bayer Leverkusen71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg75
Bayer Leverkusen25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg87.5
Bayer Leverkusen38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg19.4
Bayer Leverkusen38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg43.8
Bayer Leverkusen49.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
41%Possession5/561.6%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/55.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲15 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
45.9%Possession10/1062.2%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/108.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2.15 goals/match
2.08 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.46 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots13/13▲14.2 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4.77 shots/match
44.9%Possession13/1359.7%
4.15 corners/matchCorners13/134.85 corners/match
3.08 cards/matchCards13/132.62 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls13/138.62 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/6▲2 goals/match
2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots7/611.5 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/63.67 shots/match
46.7%Possession7/655.8%
5.43 corners/matchCorners7/63.83 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards7/62.83 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls7/68.17 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC AugsburgBayer Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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