PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timePreZero ArenaFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1899 HoffenheimFC Augsburg
Shots17 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession60%40%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC Augsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

15.1 fouls/match▲Fouls1899 Hoffenheim · FC Augsburg13.2 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimFC AugsburgBaseline
Fouls15.1 fouls/match13.2 fouls/match11.1 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1899 Hoffenheim favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · FC Augsburg in 1 · 4 too close

2.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/121.25 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/122.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1212.3 shots/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1213.7 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/124 shots/match
4.42 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/125 shots/match
53.3%Possessionseason · 12/1246%
5.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.08 corners/match
5.58 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲4.33 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 12/123 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1213.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/128%
92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1275%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1899 Hoffenheim69.4
FC Augsburg25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1899 Hoffenheim75.9
FC Augsburg33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1899 Hoffenheim69.4
FC Augsburg31.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1899 Hoffenheim47.2
FC Augsburg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim77.8
FC Augsburg84.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim80.6
FC Augsburg13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1899 Hoffenheim81.2
FC Augsburg38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/513.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/544.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104 shots/match
54.1%Possession10/1047%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.25 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1212.3 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124 shots/match
53.3%Possession12/1246%
5.5 corners/matchCorners12/124.08 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards12/123 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots6/612.2 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target6/64.33 shots/match
54.3%Possession6/642.8%
6.5 corners/matchCorners6/62.67 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/63.33 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls6/614.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1899 HoffenheimFC Augsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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