PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 21 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFSV Mainz 051899 Hoffenheim
Shots17 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession45%55%
Corners7 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1899 Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.3 fouls/match▲FoulsFSV Mainz 05 · 1899 Hoffenheim14.9 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricFSV Mainz 051899 HoffenheimBaseline
Fouls13.3 fouls/match14.9 fouls/match11.1 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · 1899 Hoffenheim in 9 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲2 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲13.5 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲12.5 shots/match
2.82 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲5 shots/match
4.91 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4.45 shots/match
49%Possessionseason · 11/1152.6%
5.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/115.36 corners/match
3.73 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/115.91 corners/match
3 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/11▲2.09 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1114.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲9%
55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0547.2
1899 Hoffenheim69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0521.3
1899 Hoffenheim71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0541.7
1899 Hoffenheim58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0536.1
1899 Hoffenheim41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0583.3
1899 Hoffenheim77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0558.3
1899 Hoffenheim75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0544.5
1899 Hoffenheim77.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/553.4%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.8 shots/match
2.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
48.8%Possession10/1053.9%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots11/11▲13.5 shots/match
2.82 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5 shots/match
49%Possession11/1152.6%
5.18 corners/matchCorners11/115.36 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards11/112.09 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls11/1114.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2.33 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots6/612.8 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲5.17 shots/match
48.3%Possession6/652.2%
4.83 corners/matchCorners6/64.5 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/62.17 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls6/615.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 21 Nov 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFSV Mainz 051899 Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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