PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeWWK ArenaFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC AugsburgHamburger SV
Shots13 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match6 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC Augsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.5 fouls/match▲FoulsFC Augsburg · Hamburger SV13.2 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricFC AugsburgHamburger SVBaseline
Fouls13.5 fouls/match13.2 fouls/match11.1 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 5 · 5 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/110.82 goals/match
2.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲13.7 shots/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1115.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.82 shots/match
5.18 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/115.36 shots/match
46.5%Possessionseason · 11/1148.1%
4.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/113.64 corners/match
4.09 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/114.91 corners/match
3.27 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/11▲2.82 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1113.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲27%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1145%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg27.8
Hamburger SV41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg30.6
Hamburger SV48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg32.4
Hamburger SV33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg52.8
Hamburger SV75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg91.7
Hamburger SV80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg25
Hamburger SV2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg41
Hamburger SV53.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
45.4%Possession5/552.6%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.4 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
47.2%Possession10/1049%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match
3.1 cards/matchCards10/103 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.82 goals/match
2.18 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots11/11▲13.7 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.82 shots/match
46.5%Possession11/1148.1%
4.27 corners/matchCorners11/113.64 corners/match
3.27 cards/matchCards11/112.82 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.33 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots6/612.2 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4 shots/match
49.2%Possession6/648.5%
5.5 corners/matchCorners6/63.83 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/63 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls6/613.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC AugsburgHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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