PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Volksparkstadion

Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Hamburger SV won 2–1.

Shots
914
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.980.75
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

Hamburger SV beat VfB Stuttgart 2–1. Recorded in this match (Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart): shots 9–14, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.98–0.75, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHamburger SV · VfB Stuttgart15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.9%PossessionHamburger SV · VfB Stuttgart● 59.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession46.9%59.4%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots14 shotsHamburger SV 9 shots, VfB Stuttgart 14 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsHamburger SV 2 shots, VfB Stuttgart 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.98 xG0.75 xGHamburger SV 0.98 xG, VfB Stuttgart 0.75 xG
  • Possession34%66%Hamburger SV 34%, VfB Stuttgart 66%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersHamburger SV 4 corners, VfB Stuttgart 6 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls12 foulsHamburger SV 16 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsHamburger SV 2 cards, VfB Stuttgart 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nikolas Nartey · VfB Stuttgart · 12′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBadredine Bouanani · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRayan Philippe · Hamburger SV · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMiro Muheim · Hamburger SV · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Gocholeishvili · Hamburger SV · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuka Vušković · Hamburger SV · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart · 88′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBadredine Bouanani · VfB Stuttgart · 6′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRansford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRamon Hendriks · VfB Stuttgart · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRansford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV · 69′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLuka Vušković · Hamburger SV · 73′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 54′ · 0.18 xG · goalRobert Glatzel · Hamburger SV · 17′ · 0.24 xG · goalFábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 90′ · 0.28 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Hamburger SV: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 14 shots, 3 on target, 0.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV · 17′Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 90′Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hamburger SV 1.00 xG · VfB Stuttgart 0.74 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Hamburger SV
0Draws
2VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–3
VfB Stuttgart — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Hamburger SV12 matchesVfB Stuttgart12 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 1.42 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.5 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots12/12▲ 15.5 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 5.5 shots/match
46.9%Possession12/12● 59.4%
3.67 corners/matchCorners12/12● 5.75 corners/match
2.83 cards/matchCards12/122 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headHamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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