PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
Shots9 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession34%66%
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsHamburger SV · VfB Stuttgart15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.9%▲PossessionHamburger SV · VfB Stuttgart59.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession46.9%59.4%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 9 · 5 too close

0.92 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.75 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.42 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲15.5 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲12.2 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲5.5 shots/match
5.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲4.33 shots/match
46.9%Possessionseason · 12/1259.4%
3.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.75 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/124.83 corners/match
2.83 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲33%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV33.3
VfB Stuttgart91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV46.3
VfB Stuttgart78.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV35.2
VfB Stuttgart72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV80.6
VfB Stuttgart58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV86.1
VfB Stuttgart50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV2.8
VfB Stuttgart86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV53.5
VfB Stuttgart76.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
48.8%Possession5/559.8%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/matchShots10/1015.2 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.5 shots/match
47.6%Possession10/1058.7%
3.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.9 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.75 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots12/12▲15.5 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.5 shots/match
46.9%Possession12/1259.4%
3.67 corners/matchCorners12/125.75 corners/match
2.83 cards/matchCards12/122 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/7▲1.71 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/matchShots6/714.6 shots/match
5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/74.71 shots/match
45.3%Possession6/760.4%
3.5 corners/matchCorners6/76.14 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/72.14 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls6/711.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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