PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SVWerder Bremen
Shots12 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲6 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible away split

moderate

Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 2 · 8 too close

1.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.38 goals/match
1.54 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.85 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1312.6 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1315.4 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/134.62 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/135.85 shots/match
47.5%Possessionseason · 13/1349.2%
3.77 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/134.15 corners/match
4.85 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/135.46 corners/match
2.77 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 13/133 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/139.69 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1323%
54%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲77%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV30.6
Werder Bremen52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV52.7
Werder Bremen52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV38.9
Werder Bremen13
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV80.6
Werder Bremen41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV77.8
Werder Bremen58.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV8.3
Werder Bremen22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV55.5
Werder Bremen39.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
47.4%Possession5/551.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1013 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.3 shots/match
50.1%Possession10/1050.3%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.9 cards/matchCards10/103.1 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.38 goals/match
1.54 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.85 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots13/1312.6 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on target13/134.62 shots/match
47.5%Possession13/1349.2%
3.77 corners/matchCorners13/134.15 corners/match
2.77 cards/matchCards13/133 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls13/139.69 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.43 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots7/710.3 shots/match
5.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.43 shots/match
46.6%Possession7/746.4%
3.71 corners/matchCorners7/73.29 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/72.43 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/79.14 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SVWerder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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