PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timePreZero ArenaFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.07 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.7 fouls/match▲Fouls1899 Hoffenheim · Hamburger SV12.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimHamburger SVBaseline
Fouls14.7 fouls/match12.8 fouls/match10.6 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1899 Hoffenheim favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 2 · 6 too close

2.07 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.07 goals/match
1.43 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/1413.3 shots/match
12.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1414.4 shots/match
4.79 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/144.71 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/145.07 shots/match
53.9%Possessionseason · 14/1447%
5.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/143.71 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲4.71 corners/match
1.93 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/142.79 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲21%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1457%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1899 Hoffenheim75
Hamburger SV30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1899 Hoffenheim75.9
Hamburger SV53.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1899 Hoffenheim69.4
Hamburger SV31.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1899 Hoffenheim36.1
Hamburger SV80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim72.2
Hamburger SV77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim66.7
Hamburger SV8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1899 Hoffenheim77.8
Hamburger SV56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54.4 shots/match
56%Possession5/545.2%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShots10/1014.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
56.1%Possession10/1049.3%
5.9 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
2.07 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.07 goals/match
1.43 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots14/1413.3 shots/match
4.79 shots/matchShots on target14/144.71 shots/match
53.9%Possession14/1447%
5.29 corners/matchCorners14/143.71 corners/match
1.93 cards/matchCards14/142.79 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.43 goals/match
1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots7/712.4 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.14 shots/match
55%Possession7/747.4%
6 corners/matchCorners7/73.71 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/73 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls7/713 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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