PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Europa-Park-Stadion

SC Freiburg 4–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

4–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Freiburg won 4–0.

Shots
231
Shots on target
101
Expected goals
4.60.11
Possession
75%25%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Freiburg beat FSV Mainz 05 4–0. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – FSV Mainz 05): shots 23–1, shots on target 10–1, expected goals 4.6–0.11, possession 75%–25%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · FSV Mainz 0511.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots12 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match15.4 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots1 shotSC Freiburg 23 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 shot
  • Shots on target10 shots1 shotSC Freiburg 10 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 shot
  • Expected goals4.6 xG0.11 xGSC Freiburg 4.6 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.11 xG
  • Possession75%25%SC Freiburg 75%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 25%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersSC Freiburg 6 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsSC Freiburg 9 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsSC Freiburg 0 cards, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Johan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg · 19′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJan-Niklas Beste · SC Freiburg · 21′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPhilipp Treu · SC Freiburg · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 43′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJan-Niklas Beste · SC Freiburg · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChristian Günter · SC Freiburg · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLukas Kübler · SC Freiburg · 39′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg · 59′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAndreas Hanche-Olsen · FSV Mainz 05 · 81′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 43′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Treu · SC Freiburg · 47′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg · 17′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJohan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 50′ · 0.12 xG · goalVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 21′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg · 12′ · 0.34 xG · on targetPatrick Osterhage · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.47 xG · goalJan-Niklas Beste · SC Freiburg · 72′ · 0.51 xG · on targetVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 26′ · 0.59 xG · goalIgor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 75′ · 0.71 xG · off target or blockedLukas Kübler · SC Freiburg · 12′ · 0.91 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Freiburg: 23 shots, 10 on target, 4.68 xG. FSV Mainz 05: 1 shots, 1 on target, 0.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.550′HT90′Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg · 12′Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 26′Johan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 50′Patrick Osterhage · SC Freiburg · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 4.68 xG · FSV Mainz 05 0.09 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1SC Freiburg
4Draws
01. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–2
SC Freiburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–0
SC Freiburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg12 matches1. FSV Mainz 0512 matches
1.58 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/120.92 goals/match
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/121.92 goals/match
1.56 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.24 xG/match
12 shots/match ▲Shots12/1211.3 shots/match
3.92 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/122.67 shots/match
50.3% ●Possession12/1247%
4.58 corners/matchCorners12/12● 4.92 corners/match
1.58 cards/matchCards12/123 cards/match
8.75 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC Freiburg1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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