PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTCFull timeEuropa-Park-StadionFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05
Shots23 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession75%25%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12 shots/match▲ShotsSC Freiburg · FSV Mainz 0511.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots12 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match15.4 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 0 · 4 too close

1.58 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/120.92 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.92 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1211.3 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1215.4 shots/match
3.92 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/122.67 shots/match
3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/125.33 shots/match
50.3%Possessionseason · 12/1247%
4.58 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.92 corners/match
3.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/123.92 corners/match
1.58 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 12/123 cards/match
8.75 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1213.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/120%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1250%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg63.9
FSV Mainz 0541.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg36.1
FSV Mainz 059.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg64.8
FSV Mainz 0517.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg25
FSV Mainz 0530.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg5.6
FSV Mainz 0586.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg33.3
FSV Mainz 0552.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg22.9
FSV Mainz 0535.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
51.4%Possession5/540.4%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/514 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1010 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match
48.2%Possession10/1045.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/103 cards/match
8.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.92 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.3 shots/match
3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target12/122.67 shots/match
50.3%Possession12/1247%
4.58 corners/matchCorners12/124.92 corners/match
1.58 cards/matchCards12/123 cards/match
8.75 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots6/69.5 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.33 shots/match
55.8%Possession6/645.7%
6 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/63.67 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls6/612.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.96 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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