PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeSignal Iduna ParkFull-time recap
3–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia DortmundVfB Stuttgart
Shots14 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match6 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.82 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible home split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.64 corners/match▲CornersBorussia Dortmund · VfB Stuttgart5.73 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundVfB StuttgartBaseline
Corners5.64 corners/match5.73 corners/match4.77 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 2 · 6 too close

1.73 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/111.82 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.36 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲15.6 shots/match
10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1112.5 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲5.73 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/114.55 shots/match
55.4%Possessionseason · 11/1158.8%
5.64 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/115.73 corners/match
4.45 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/114.91 corners/match
1.64 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 11/111.82 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1110.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
55%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1136%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund75
VfB Stuttgart91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund50.9
VfB Stuttgart81.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund91.7
VfB Stuttgart68.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund25
VfB Stuttgart63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund41.7
VfB Stuttgart45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund86.1
VfB Stuttgart97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund62.5
VfB Stuttgart80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/558.4%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.1 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match
56%Possession10/1057.2%
6 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.73 goals/matchGoals scored11/111.82 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShots11/11▲15.6 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.73 shots/match
55.4%Possession11/1158.8%
5.64 corners/matchCorners11/115.73 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards11/111.82 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/61.83 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots5/614.7 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/65 shots/match
57.4%Possession5/659.5%
7.8 corners/matchCorners5/66.17 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/61.83 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/611 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia DortmundVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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