Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap

Union Berlin

WLDDW

1–2Full-time recap

1. FC Heidenheim

DLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Union Berlin	1. FC Heidenheim
Shots	9 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	2 shots/match
Possession	43%	57%
Corners	5 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.25 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 2 · 6 too close

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/120.83 goals/match

1.58 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/122.25 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1210.3 shots/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1215.8 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/123.5 shots/match

4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/125.42 shots/match

34.2%Possessionseason · 12/1241.5%

5 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.58 corners/match

5.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲4.58 corners/match

2.42 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲1.67 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/120%

58%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1258%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8

1. FC Heidenheim8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin18.5

1. FC Heidenheim11.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin50

1. FC Heidenheim5.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2

1. FC Heidenheim30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin80.6

1. FC Heidenheim29.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin58.3

1. FC Heidenheim36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin43

1. FC Heidenheim25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.2 shots/match▲Shots5/57.8 shots/match

2.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match

37.8%Possession5/540%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.2 shots/match

3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.7 shots/match

35%Possession10/1041.5%

4.9 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.83 goals/match

1.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.25 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.6 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.3 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on target12/123.5 shots/match

34.2%Possession12/1241.5%

5 corners/matchCorners12/124.58 corners/match

2.42 cards/matchCards12/121.67 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/60.67 goals/match

1.43 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/62.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.4 shots/match▲Shots7/68.83 shots/match

3.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/62.83 shots/match

34.9%Possession7/640.7%

5.86 corners/matchCorners7/64.5 corners/match

3.29 cards/matchCards7/61.83 cards/match

16.3 fouls/matchFouls7/610.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples12 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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