PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC St. PauliUnion Berlin
Shots12 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: FC St. Pauli have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.82 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC St. Pauli have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.5%▲PossessionFC St. Pauli · Union Berlin33.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliUnion BerlinBaseline
Possession51.5%33.4%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Union Berlin show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Union Berlin's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · Union Berlin11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliUnion BerlinBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 5 · 5 too close

0.82 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.27 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/1111.8 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1114.3 shots/match
3.91 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/113.45 shots/match
5.45 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲5 shots/match
51.5%Possessionseason · 11/1133.4%
5.55 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/115 corners/match
3.45 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/115.27 corners/match
1.91 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 11/112.36 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1113.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲27%
45%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲55%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli63.9
Union Berlin2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli17.6
Union Berlin20.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli40.7
Union Berlin51.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli8.3
Union Berlin97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli55.5
Union Berlin79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli80.6
Union Berlin58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli45.1
Union Berlin45.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.6 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.2 shots/match
50.6%Possession5/536.6%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots10/1012.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/103.6 shots/match
51.6%Possession10/1034.2%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.27 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots11/1111.8 shots/match
3.91 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.45 shots/match
51.5%Possession11/1133.4%
5.55 corners/matchCorners11/115 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCards11/112.36 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored6/51 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/5▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots6/510.4 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/53.2 shots/match
53.5%Possession6/533.2%
7.67 corners/matchCorners6/53.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/51.2 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/510.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC St. PauliUnion Berlin
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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