PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Millerntor-Stadion

FC St. Pauli 0–1 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin won 0–1.

Shots
127
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.720.55
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Union Berlin beat FC St. Pauli 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – Union Berlin): shots 12–7, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.72–0.55, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.82 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC St. Pauli have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.5% ●PossessionFC St. Pauli · Union Berlin33.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliUnion BerlinBaseline
Possession51.5%33.4%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Union Berlin show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Union Berlin's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · Union Berlin11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliUnion BerlinBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots7 shotsFC St. Pauli 12 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 7 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsFC St. Pauli 3 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.72 xG0.55 xGFC St. Pauli 0.72 xG, 1. FC Union Berlin 0.55 xG
  • Possession59%41%FC St. Pauli 59%, 1. FC Union Berlin 41%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersFC St. Pauli 8 corners, 1. FC Union Berlin 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsFC St. Pauli 10 fouls, 1. FC Union Berlin 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardFC St. Pauli 1 card, 1. FC Union Berlin 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLouis Oppie · FC St. Pauli · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 85′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJoel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · Union Berlin · 29′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRani Khedira · Union Berlin · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTom Rothe · Union Berlin · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 74′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRani Khedira · Union Berlin · 44′ · 0.09 xG · goalJames Sands · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedHauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 63′ · 0.19 xG · on targetAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 39′ · 0.27 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.70 xG. Union Berlin: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Rani Khedira · Union Berlin · 44′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 0.70 xG · Union Berlin 0.58 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC St. Pauli
0Draws
11. FC Union Berlin
FC St. Pauli — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–0
1. FC Union Berlin — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Union Berlin in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli11 matches1. FC Union Berlin11 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 1.27 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 1.55 goals/match
0.97 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 1.1 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots11/1111.8 shots/match
3.91 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/113.45 shots/match
51.5% ●Possession11/1133.4%
5.55 corners/match ●Corners11/115 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCards11/112.36 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. Pauli1. FC Union Berlin
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — 1. FC Union Berlin
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required