PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Allianz Arena

FC Bayern München 3–1 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 3–1.

Shots
1910
Shots on target
41
Expected goals
2.30.64
Possession
80%20%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München beat FC St. Pauli 3–1. Recorded in this match (Bayern München – FC St. Pauli): shots 19–10, shots on target 4–1, expected goals 2.3–0.64, possession 80%–20%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.83 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

19.2 shots/match ▲ShotsBayern München · FC St. Pauli11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenFC St. PauliBaseline
Shots19.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against8.67 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

66.8% ●PossessionBayern München · FC St. Pauli48.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession66.8%48.9%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots10 shotsFC Bayern München 19 shots, FC St. Pauli 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots1 shotFC Bayern München 4 shots, FC St. Pauli 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.3 xG0.64 xGFC Bayern München 2.3 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.64 xG
  • Possession80%20%FC Bayern München 80%, FC St. Pauli 20%
  • Corners10 corners2 cornersFC Bayern München 10 corners, FC St. Pauli 2 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls8 foulsFC Bayern München 5 fouls, FC St. Pauli 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardFC Bayern München 1 card, FC St. Pauli 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJames Sands · FC St. Pauli · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · Bayern München · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArkadiusz Pyrka · FC St. Pauli · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayern München · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · Bayern München · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKim Min-jae · Bayern München · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAleksandar Pavlović · Bayern München · 5′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · Bayern München · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLouis Oppie · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 37′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKarol Mets · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 71′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 81′ · 0.09 xG · on targetTom Bischof · Bayern München · 64′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · Bayern München · 44′ · 0.11 xG · goalTom Bischof · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 6′ · 0.13 xG · goalLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 22′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · Bayern München · 57′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.36 xG · goalNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.60 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayern München: 19 shots, 4 on target, 2.33 xG. FC St. Pauli: 10 shots, 1 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Raphaël Guerreiro · Bayern München · 44′Luis Díaz · Bayern München · 90′Nicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 90′Andreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 6′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayern München 2.33 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Bayern München
0Draws
0FC St. Pauli
FC Bayern München — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga3–2
FC St. Pauli — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München12 matchesFC St. Pauli12 matches
3.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/120.83 goals/match
0.75 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/122 goals/match
2.65 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/120.94 xG/match
19.2 shots/match ▲Shots12/1211.7 shots/match
8 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/123.67 shots/match
66.8% ●Possession12/1248.9%
5.83 corners/match ●Corners12/125.25 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards12/121.83 cards/match
9.83 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — FC St. Pauli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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