PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern MünchenFC St. Pauli
Shots19 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession80%20%
Corners10 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.83 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

19.2 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · FC St. Pauli11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenFC St. PauliBaseline
Shots19.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against8.75 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

66.8%▲PossessionBayern München · FC St. Pauli48.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession66.8%48.9%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 2 · 4 too close

3.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/120.83 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/122 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1211.7 shots/match
8.75 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1211.1 shots/match
8 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/123.67 shots/match
1.92 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/125.33 shots/match
66.8%Possessionseason · 12/1248.9%
5.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.25 corners/match
4.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲4 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲1.83 cards/match
9.83 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1211.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/128%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1250%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
FC St. Pauli47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
FC St. Pauli19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2
FC St. Pauli40.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München86.1
FC St. Pauli25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München50
FC St. Pauli48.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München91.7
FC St. Pauli69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München80.5
FC St. Pauli42.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
73.6%Possession5/544.8%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
3.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.2 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.1 shots/match
68.1%Possession10/1048.4%
6 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
3.67 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.83 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.7 shots/match
8 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.67 shots/match
66.8%Possession12/1248.9%
5.83 corners/matchCorners12/125.25 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards12/121.83 cards/match
9.83 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches
4.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/60.67 goals/match
0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/61.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.1 shots/match▲Shots7/610.8 shots/match
8.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/62.5 shots/match
66.4%Possession7/644.3%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/62.83 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/61.67 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls7/611.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.92 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern MünchenFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match