PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRB LeipzigWerder Bremen
Shots22 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target13 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners13 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsRB Leipzig · Werder Bremen12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigWerder BremenBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against14.4 shots/match16.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Werder Bremen have a visible away split

moderate

Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 0 · 4 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.36 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.82 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1112.5 shots/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1116.2 shots/match
5.91 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/114.82 shots/match
3.91 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/116.18 shots/match
48.6%Possessionseason · 11/1149.5%
6.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.27 corners/match
4.82 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/116 corners/match
1.55 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 11/112.73 cards/match
9.55 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/119.27 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1127%
91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1173%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig47.2
Werder Bremen58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig87.1
Werder Bremen46.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig71.3
Werder Bremen14.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig91.7
Werder Bremen36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig13.9
Werder Bremen47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig97.2
Werder Bremen22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig76.4
Werder Bremen33.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots5/513.4 shots/match
7.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/552.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
8.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.7 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match
49.8%Possession10/1049.8%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.36 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1112.5 shots/match
5.91 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.82 shots/match
48.6%Possession11/1149.5%
6.36 corners/matchCorners11/114.27 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards11/112.73 cards/match
9.55 fouls/matchFouls11/119.27 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/61.33 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots5/610.3 shots/match
7.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/64.67 shots/match
50.8%Possession5/646.5%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/63.33 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/61.83 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/68.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.8 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRB LeipzigWerder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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