PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeWeserstadionFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWerder Bremen1. FC Köln
Shots17 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners4 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible home split

moderate

Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Werder Bremen favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 5 · 6 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.75 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/121.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/1213.3 shots/match
15.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲14.8 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/124.42 shots/match
5.83 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲5 shots/match
49.5%Possessionseason · 12/1246.9%
4.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/123.92 corners/match
5.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/126.58 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲1.92 cards/match
9.42 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/129.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1217%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Werder Bremen63.9
1. FC Köln30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Werder Bremen50
1. FC Köln55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Werder Bremen15.7
1. FC Köln36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Werder Bremen52.8
1. FC Köln69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen47.2
1. FC Köln37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen19.4
1. FC Köln8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Werder Bremen34.7
1. FC Köln34
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/513.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/54.4 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/548%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots10/1012.9 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match
50.2%Possession10/1047.5%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.75 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed12/121.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots12/1213.3 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.42 shots/match
49.5%Possession12/1246.9%
4.25 corners/matchCorners12/123.92 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards12/121.92 cards/match
9.42 fouls/matchFouls12/129.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/71.14 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/71.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots6/711.9 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/73.29 shots/match
52.5%Possession6/747.1%
5.17 corners/matchCorners6/73.71 corners/match
3.67 cards/matchCards6/72.29 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/79.43 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWerder Bremen1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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