PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC HeidenheimSC Freiburg
Shots16 shots/match16 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession39%61%
Corners8 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.6 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

SC Freiburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.3%▲Possession1. FC Heidenheim · SC Freiburg51.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimSC FreiburgBaseline
Possession41.3%51.1%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 10 · 4 too close

0.92 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.54 goals/match
2.15 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.69 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲12.3 shots/match
15.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲12.2 shots/match
3.46 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲3.77 shots/match
5.15 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲3.85 shots/match
41.3%Possessionseason · 13/1351.1%
4.85 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/134.69 corners/match
4.69 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲3.62 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/13▲1.54 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/138.85 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲31%
62%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲77%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3
SC Freiburg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim11.1
SC Freiburg37
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim12
SC Freiburg65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim52.8
SC Freiburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim36.1
SC Freiburg7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim38.9
SC Freiburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim25
SC Freiburg24.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match
2.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
39.8%Possession5/557.4%
4 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots10/1011.8 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
42.9%Possession10/1049.7%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/108.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.54 goals/match
2.15 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots13/13▲12.3 shots/match
3.46 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲3.77 shots/match
41.3%Possession13/1351.1%
4.85 corners/matchCorners13/134.69 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards13/131.54 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls13/138.85 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots7/711.6 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.71 shots/match
41.9%Possession7/747%
5.14 corners/matchCorners7/73.57 corners/match
1.57 cards/matchCards7/71.29 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls7/78.71 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.83 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC HeidenheimSC Freiburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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