PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 1–1 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli drew 1–1.

Shots
115
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
1.660.14
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – FC St. Pauli): shots 11–5, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 1.66–0.14, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.85 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots5 shots1. FC Köln 11 shots, FC St. Pauli 5 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shot1. FC Köln 8 shots, FC St. Pauli 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.66 xG0.14 xG1. FC Köln 1.66 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.14 xG
  • Possession58%42%1. FC Köln 58%, FC St. Pauli 42%
  • Corners5 corners4 corners1. FC Köln 5 corners, FC St. Pauli 4 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls6 fouls1. FC Köln 6 fouls, FC St. Pauli 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 card1. FC Köln 0 cards, FC St. Pauli 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConnor Metcalfe · FC St. Pauli · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRicky-Jade Jones · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.02 xG · goalMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 21′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTom Krauß · 1. FC Köln · 76′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 78′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.28 xG · on targetLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 21′ · 0.33 xG · on targetSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 51′ · 0.33 xG · goalSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 21′ · 0.61 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 11 shots, 8 on target, 1.93 xG. FC St. Pauli: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 51′Ricky-Jade Jones · FC St. Pauli · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 1.93 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.14 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln13 matchesFC St. Pauli13 matches
1.69 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/130.85 goals/match
1.62 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.92 goals/match
1.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/130.88 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots13/1311.2 shots/match
4.62 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/133.46 shots/match
47.8%Possession13/13● 48.4%
4 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5.15 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards13/131.77 cards/match
9.23 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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