PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 12 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
Shots12 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession37%63%
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

weak

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

36%▲PossessionUnion Berlin · RB Leipzig50.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinRB LeipzigBaseline
Possession36%50.6%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsUnion Berlin · RB Leipzig16.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match16.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.9 shots/match13.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 9 · 5 too close

1.36 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲2.07 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲16.1 shots/match
12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/1413.2 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲5.64 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.64 shots/match
36%Possessionseason · 14/1450.6%
5.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/146.14 corners/match
4.93 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲4.43 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.64 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/149.36 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲50%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8
RB Leipzig58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin32.4
RB Leipzig88
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin58.3
RB Leipzig73.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2
RB Leipzig91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin72.2
RB Leipzig19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin69.4
RB Leipzig97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin51.4
RB Leipzig75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
40.8%Possession5/555.2%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/57.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.8 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.2 shots/match
38%Possession10/1051.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.3 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲2.07 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots14/14▲16.1 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲5.64 shots/match
36%Possession14/1450.6%
5.36 corners/matchCorners14/146.14 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCards14/141.64 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls14/149.36 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots8/8▲15.6 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.13 shots/match
35.1%Possession8/850.3%
5.63 corners/matchCorners8/86 corners/match
3.13 cards/matchCards8/81.75 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls8/89.88 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.08 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 12 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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