PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Stadion An der Alten Försterei

1. FC Union Berlin 3–1 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin won 3–1.

Shots
129
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
1.420.55
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Union Berlin beat RB Leipzig 3–1. Recorded in this match (Union Berlin – RB Leipzig): shots 12–9, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 1.42–0.55, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

weak

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

36%PossessionUnion Berlin · RB Leipzig● 50.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinRB LeipzigBaseline
Possession36%50.6%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsUnion Berlin · RB Leipzig16.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match16.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.9 shots/match13.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots9 shots1. FC Union Berlin 12 shots, RB Leipzig 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shots1. FC Union Berlin 6 shots, RB Leipzig 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.42 xG0.55 xG1. FC Union Berlin 1.42 xG, RB Leipzig 0.55 xG
  • Possession37%63%1. FC Union Berlin 37%, RB Leipzig 63%
  • Corners4 corners6 corners1. FC Union Berlin 4 corners, RB Leipzig 6 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls8 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 7 fouls, RB Leipzig 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cards1. FC Union Berlin 2 cards, RB Leipzig 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Oliver Burke · Union Berlin · 14′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAljoscha Kemlein · Union Berlin · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYan Diomande · RB Leipzig · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedConrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedConrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTidiam Gomis · RB Leipzig · 60′ · 0.04 xG · goalIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Leite · Union Berlin · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrás Schäfer · Union Berlin · 83′ · 0.05 xG · on targetWoo-Yeong Jeong · Union Berlin · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDavid Raum · RB Leipzig · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Maksimović · RB Leipzig · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Union Berlin · 87′ · 0.06 xG · on targetChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 17′ · 0.07 xG · on targetYan Diomande · RB Leipzig · 17′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJanik Haberer · Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 46′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 57′ · 0.13 xG · goalOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 42′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.24 xG · goalIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 63′ · 0.41 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Union Berlin: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.42 xG. RB Leipzig: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Oliver Burke · Union Berlin · 57′Ilyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 63′Tim Skarke · Union Berlin · 90′Tidiam Gomis · RB Leipzig · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Union Berlin 1.42 xG · RB Leipzig 0.55 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Union Berlin
2Draws
2RB Leipzig
1. FC Union Berlin — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–0
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–0
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Union Berlin — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–3
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin14 matchesRB Leipzig14 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 2.07 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 1.14 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.88 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 16.1 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲ 5.64 shots/match
36%Possession14/14● 50.6%
5.36 corners/matchCorners14/14● 6.14 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCards14/141.64 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls14/149.36 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 12 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — RB Leipzig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required