PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 7 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeWeserstadionFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWerder BremenVfL Wolfsburg
Shots20 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession60%40%
Corners13 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen have a visible home split

moderate

Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Werder Bremen favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 2 · 7 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/101.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/1012.1 shots/match
15.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/1015.2 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/103.7 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲5.2 shots/match
49.7%Possessionseason · 10/1046.3%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/103.8 corners/match
5.3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/108 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.8 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1010%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1070%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Werder Bremen52.8
VfL Wolfsburg19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Werder Bremen43.5
VfL Wolfsburg26.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Werder Bremen22.2
VfL Wolfsburg35.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Werder Bremen36.1
VfL Wolfsburg58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen47.2
VfL Wolfsburg38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen25
VfL Wolfsburg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Werder Bremen29.2
VfL Wolfsburg27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
51.4%Possession5/544.2%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots10/1012.1 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
49.7%Possession10/1046.3%
4 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots10/1012.1 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
49.7%Possession10/1046.3%
4 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
53.2%Possession5/545.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
3.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 7 Nov 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWerder BremenVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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