PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Volkswagen Arena

VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim won 2–3.

Shots
1210
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.541.23
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

1899 Hoffenheim beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–2. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – 1899 Hoffenheim): shots 12–10, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.54–1.23, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.22 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots10 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 12 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 6 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.54 xG1.23 xGVfL Wolfsburg 1.54 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 1.23 xG
  • Possession48%52%VfL Wolfsburg 48%, TSG Hoffenheim 52%
  • Corners2 corners2 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 2 corners, TSG Hoffenheim 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls17 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 10 fouls, TSG Hoffenheim 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsVfL Wolfsburg 0 cards, TSG Hoffenheim 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Aaron Zehnter · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJenson Seelt · VfL Wolfsburg · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Souza · VfL Wolfsburg · 55′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKonstantinos Koulierakis · VfL Wolfsburg · 65′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIhlas Bebou · 1899 Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Eriksen · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · 1899 Hoffenheim · 53′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 33′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGrischa Prömel · 1899 Hoffenheim · 76′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 62′ · 0.10 xG · goalOzan Kabak · 1899 Hoffenheim · 84′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIhlas Bebou · 1899 Hoffenheim · 76′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedWouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 31′ · 0.23 xG · goalGrischa Prömel · 1899 Hoffenheim · 50′ · 0.25 xG · goalMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 56′ · 0.44 xG · goalMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 14′ · 0.77 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.54 xG. 1899 Hoffenheim: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 14′Mohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 56′Wouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 31′Grischa Prömel · 1899 Hoffenheim · 50′Wouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 xG · 1899 Hoffenheim 1.06 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2VfL Wolfsburg
2Draws
1TSG Hoffenheim
VfL Wolfsburg — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–2
TSG Hoffenheim — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–1
VfL Wolfsburg — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–2
TSG Hoffenheim — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga3–1
VfL Wolfsburg — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · TSG Hoffenheim in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg9 matchesTSG Hoffenheim9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 2 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.32 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.66 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots9/912.9 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 5.11 shots/match
47%Possession9/9● 52.8%
3.89 corners/matchCorners9/9● 5.56 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls9/915.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgTSG Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — TSG Hoffenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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