PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timePreZero ArenaFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1899 HoffenheimRB Leipzig
Shots12 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession49%51%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.5 corners/match▲Corners1899 Hoffenheim · RB Leipzig5.7 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimRB LeipzigBaseline
Corners5.5 corners/match5.7 corners/match4.9 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1899 Hoffenheim favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 6 · 7 too close

2.1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/102 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲15.9 shots/match
12.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1014.3 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/105.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.7 shots/match
52.4%Possessionseason · 10/1048.3%
5.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.7 corners/match
5.8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.6 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.6 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1010 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲40%
90%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1090%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1899 Hoffenheim69.4
RB Leipzig41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1899 Hoffenheim68.5
RB Leipzig82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1899 Hoffenheim63
RB Leipzig71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1899 Hoffenheim36.1
RB Leipzig91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim77.8
RB Leipzig15.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim69.4
RB Leipzig83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1899 Hoffenheim72.9
RB Leipzig70.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
54.6%Possession5/548%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/102 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.9 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target10/105.2 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1048.3%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/102 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.9 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target10/105.2 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1048.3%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/61.67 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/6▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShots5/6▲16 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/64.33 shots/match
53.2%Possession5/646.8%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/66 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/61.5 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/610.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1899 HoffenheimRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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