PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Volksparkstadion

Hamburger SV 1–1 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund drew 1–1.

Shots
917
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
0.571.03
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Hamburger SV – Borussia Dortmund): shots 9–17, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 0.57–1.03, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.9 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match13 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.5 fouls/matchFoulsHamburger SV · Borussia Dortmund12.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVBorussia DortmundBaseline
Fouls13.5 fouls/match12.3 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots17 shotsHamburger SV 9 shots, Borussia Dortmund 17 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotHamburger SV 3 shots, Borussia Dortmund 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.57 xG1.03 xGHamburger SV 0.57 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.03 xG
  • Possession45%55%Hamburger SV 45%, Borussia Dortmund 55%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersHamburger SV 2 corners, Borussia Dortmund 6 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls8 foulsHamburger SV 14 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardHamburger SV 1 card, Borussia Dortmund 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Carney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund · 33′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Svensson · Borussia Dortmund · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · Hamburger SV · 20′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCarney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuka Vušković · Hamburger SV · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRansford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV · 90′ · 0.06 xG · goalJean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRansford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCarney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund · 64′ · 0.09 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 59′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 72′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCarney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund · 35′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedRobert Glatzel · Hamburger SV · 76′ · 0.16 xG · on targetDaniel Svensson · Borussia Dortmund · 5′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Hamburger SV: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.60 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 17 shots, 1 on target, 1.02 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV · 90′Carney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund · 64′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hamburger SV 0.60 xG · Borussia Dortmund 1.02 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Hamburger SV favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Hamburger SV10 matchesBorussia Dortmund10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 0.7 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 1.51 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots10/1013 shots/match
4.7 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match
47.7%Possession10/10● 56.3%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/10● 6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHamburger SVBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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