PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SVBorussia Dortmund
Shots9 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession45%55%
Corners2 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.9 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match13 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.5 fouls/match▲FoulsHamburger SV · Borussia Dortmund12.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVBorussia DortmundBaseline
Fouls13.5 fouls/match12.3 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 8 · 5 too close

0.9 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/1013 shots/match
15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲9.7 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/104.4 shots/match
5.3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲2.7 shots/match
47.7%Possessionseason · 10/1056.3%
3.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/106 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.5 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.7 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲60%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV36.1
Borussia Dortmund75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV46.3
Borussia Dortmund54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV33.3
Borussia Dortmund91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV75
Borussia Dortmund2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV84.8
Borussia Dortmund41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV2.8
Borussia Dortmund91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV52.1
Borussia Dortmund65.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/514.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/553.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots10/1013 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match
47.7%Possession10/1056.3%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots10/1013 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match
47.7%Possession10/1056.3%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/6▲1.67 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/61 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/610.8 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/63.67 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/653.7%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/63.83 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/62.17 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/612.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SVBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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