PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
6–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer Leverkusen1. FC Heidenheim
Shots25 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession74%26%
Corners11 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Heidenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five shots average is above their season average.

18.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots18.2 shots/match14.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.6 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.3%▲PossessionBayer Leverkusen · 1. FC Heidenheim39.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer Leverkusen1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Possession58.3%39.2%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 2 · 4 too close

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/100.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/102.3 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1010.7 shots/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1016.5 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/103.8 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/105.9 shots/match
58.3%Possessionseason · 10/1039.2%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/104.6 corners/match
5.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.5 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.6 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1010.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/100%
90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen86.1
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen84.3
1. FC Heidenheim12.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen78.7
1. FC Heidenheim4.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen41.7
1. FC Heidenheim69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen44.4
1. FC Heidenheim19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen36.1
1. FC Heidenheim41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen52.8
1. FC Heidenheim27.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
63.2%Possession5/537%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
58.3%Possession10/1039.2%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
58.3%Possession10/1039.2%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/50.4 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/52.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots6/58.6 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target6/53 shots/match
63%Possession6/537.4%
5 corners/matchCorners6/54.4 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/51.8 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls6/511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer Leverkusen1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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