PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 5 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstádio da LuzFull-time recap

Benfica

DWLLL
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBenficaBayer 04 Leverkusen
Shots21 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.42 xG/match▲0.74 xG/match
Possession53%47%
Corners6 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Dodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 26′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNicolás Otamendi · Benfica · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Dahl · Benfica · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRichard Ríos · Benfica · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRichard Ríos · Benfica · 13′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGeorgiy Sudakov · Benfica · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Barreiro · Benfica · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Maza · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Maza · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChristian Kofane · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 20′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLeandro Barreiro · Benfica · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Schjelderup · Benfica · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Aursnes · Benfica · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Otamendi · Benfica · 71′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Otamendi · Benfica · 44′ · 0.08 xG · on targetVangelis Pavlidis · Benfica · 51′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetVangelis Pavlidis · Benfica · 43′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 65′ · 0.11 xG · goalDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 86′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 65′ · 0.13 xG · on targetDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 43′ · 0.16 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedErnest Poku · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 35′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 11′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Benfica: 21 shots, 6 on target, 1.39 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Benfica 1.39 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.75 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Benfica's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Benfica's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Benfica's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Benfica's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Benfica have a visible home split

weak

Benfica's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsBenfica · Bayer 04 Leverkusen10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBenficaBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match10.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against10.5 shots/match15.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Benfica favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 0 · 14 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/41.5 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/42.5 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.57 xG/match
1.5 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.65 xG/match
13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/410.5 shots/match
10.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/415.8 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/43.5 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/45.5 shots/match
51%Possessionseason · 8/446.5%
5.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/43.75 corners/match
4.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/44.5 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/49.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/425%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Benfica57.1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen32.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Benfica36.2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen29.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Benfica75.9
Bayer 04 Leverkusen20.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Benfica53.6
Bayer 04 Leverkusen27.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Benfica51.2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen15.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Benfica78.6
Bayer 04 Leverkusen25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Benfica54.2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen20.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 4 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲1.5 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/42.5 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.57 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/410.5 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/43.5 shots/match
50.2%Possession5/446.5%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/43.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls5/49.5 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 4 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/4▲1.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/42.5 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.57 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots8/410.5 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/43.5 shots/match
51%Possession8/446.5%
5.75 corners/matchCorners8/43.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls8/49.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 4 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/4▲1.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/42.5 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.57 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots8/410.5 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/43.5 shots/match
51%Possession8/446.5%
5.75 corners/matchCorners8/43.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls8/49.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 2 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/2—
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/2—
—Expected goals2/2—
17.8 shots/matchShots4/2—
4.25 shots/matchShots on target4/2—
54.3%Possession4/2—
6 corners/matchCorners4/2—
—Cards0/0—
9.5 fouls/matchFouls4/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 6 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBenficaBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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