PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 4–1 Hamburger SV · Bundesliga

4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Köln won 4–1.

Shots
2311
Shots on target
105
Expected goals
3.721.09
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Köln beat Hamburger SV 4–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – Hamburger SV): shots 23–11, shots on target 10–5, expected goals 3.72–1.09, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible home split

weak

1. FC Köln's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Hamburger SV show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Hamburger SV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Köln · Hamburger SV14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnHamburger SVBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match15.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots11 shots1. FC Köln 23 shots, Hamburger SV 11 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots5 shots1. FC Köln 10 shots, Hamburger SV 5 shots
  • Expected goals3.72 xG1.09 xG1. FC Köln 3.72 xG, Hamburger SV 1.09 xG
  • Possession48%52%1. FC Köln 48%, Hamburger SV 52%
  • Corners2 corners3 corners1. FC Köln 2 corners, Hamburger SV 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls18 fouls1. FC Köln 8 fouls, Hamburger SV 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card6 cards1. FC Köln 1 card, Hamburger SV 6 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV · 61′ · 0.03 xG · goalFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 35′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRayan Philippe · Hamburger SV · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRansford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV · 34′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 48′ · 0.09 xG · goalAlbert Sambi Lokonga · Hamburger SV · 46′ · 0.11 xG · on targetWilliam Mikelbrencis · Hamburger SV · 33′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 57′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedNicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson · 1. FC Köln · 11′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 24′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Gocholeishvili · Hamburger SV · 83′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.18 xG · on targetLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 24′ · 0.20 xG · on targetRansford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV · 58′ · 0.26 xG · on targetSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.27 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.28 xG · goalSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 73′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.42 xG · on targetRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 25′ · 0.47 xG · goalSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 23 shots, 10 on target, 3.77 xG. Hamburger SV: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 25′Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 48′Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 90′Jakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 90′Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 3.77 xG · Hamburger SV 1.09 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Köln
0Draws
2Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV — 1. FC Köln · 2. Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Köln — Hamburger SV · 2. Bundesliga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln9 matchesHamburger SV9 matches
1.78 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/90.89 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
1.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.34 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 14.1 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 4.89 shots/match
44.6%Possession9/9● 48%
4.22 corners/match ●Corners9/93.89 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/93 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls9/913.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — Hamburger SV
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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