PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeRheinEnergieStadionFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC KölnHamburger SV
Shots23 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners2 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲6 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Köln's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible home split

weak

1. FC Köln's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Hamburger SV show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Hamburger SV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Köln · Hamburger SV14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnHamburger SVBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match15.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Köln favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 4 · 5 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/90.89 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲14.1 shots/match
15.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/915.2 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲4.89 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95.78 shots/match
44.6%Possessionseason · 9/948%
4.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/93.89 corners/match
7.78 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲4.89 corners/match
1.78 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 9/93 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/913.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲33%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/944%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Köln13.9
Hamburger SV38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Köln61.1
Hamburger SV52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Köln42.6
Hamburger SV27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Köln80.6
Hamburger SV75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln15.3
Hamburger SV84.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln30.6
Hamburger SV19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Köln39.6
Hamburger SV62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
43.2%Possession5/553.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.89 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots9/9▲14.1 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.89 shots/match
44.6%Possession9/948%
4.22 corners/matchCorners9/93.89 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/93 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls9/913.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.89 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots9/9▲14.1 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.89 shots/match
44.6%Possession9/948%
4.22 corners/matchCorners9/93.89 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/93 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls9/913.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 5 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/50.4 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots4/511.6 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/53.6 shots/match
46.5%Possession4/547.8%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/54 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/53 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/514.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC KölnHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match