PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern MünchenBayer Leverkusen
Shots18 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners10 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match3 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.7 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · Bayer Leverkusen13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Shots19.7 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against8.33 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season3.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match3.67 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 0 · 4 too close

3.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/92 goals/match
0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/913.2 shots/match
8.33 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/912.3 shots/match
8.89 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/94.78 shots/match
1.78 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/94.33 shots/match
64%Possessionseason · 9/956.6%
5.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/93.78 corners/match
4.22 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.67 corners/match
2.33 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 9/93 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99.67 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
67%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/922%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/989%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
Bayer Leverkusen86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
Bayer Leverkusen67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2
Bayer Leverkusen63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München86.1
Bayer Leverkusen13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München51.4
Bayer Leverkusen55.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München77.8
Bayer Leverkusen8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München77.8
Bayer Leverkusen37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
0.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.6 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
64.4%Possession5/558.6%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
3.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/92 goals/match
0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.7 shots/match▲Shots9/913.2 shots/match
8.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.78 shots/match
64%Possession9/956.6%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/93.78 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards9/93 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls9/99.67 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
3.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/92 goals/match
0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.7 shots/match▲Shots9/913.2 shots/match
8.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.78 shots/match
64%Possession9/956.6%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/93.78 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards9/93 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls9/99.67 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/42.25 goals/match
0.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/42.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20 shots/match▲Shots5/410.5 shots/match
9.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/44.25 shots/match
62.6%Possession5/451.3%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/43.75 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/43.25 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/49 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern MünchenBayer Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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