PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Mewa Arena

1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 and SV Werder Bremen drew 1–1.

Shots
105
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
1.421.04
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen): shots 10–5, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 1.42–1.04, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.44 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible away split

moderate

Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots5 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 10 shots, SV Werder Bremen 5 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots, SV Werder Bremen 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.42 xG1.04 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 1.42 xG, SV Werder Bremen 1.04 xG
  • Possession47%53%1. FSV Mainz 05 47%, SV Werder Bremen 53%
  • Corners2 corners0 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 2 corners, SV Werder Bremen 0 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls11 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 19 fouls, SV Werder Bremen 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cards1. FSV Mainz 05 1 card, SV Werder Bremen 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05 · 57′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJens Stage · Werder Bremen · 86′ · 0.06 xG · goalJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 40′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 5′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · FSV Mainz 05 · 19′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · FSV Mainz 05 · 24′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAmos Pieper · Werder Bremen · 65′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJens Stage · Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.17 xG · on targetLennard Maloney · FSV Mainz 05 · 47′ · 0.19 xG · on targetMarco Grüll · Werder Bremen · 13′ · 0.30 xG · on targetSilvan Widmer · FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.30 xG · on targetJustin Njinmah · Werder Bremen · 65′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.46 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FSV Mainz 05: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.42 xG. Werder Bremen: 5 shots, 3 on target, 1.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Silvan Widmer · FSV Mainz 05 · 36′Jens Stage · Werder Bremen · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FSV Mainz 05 1.42 xG · Werder Bremen 1.03 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FSV Mainz 05
1Draws
4SV Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga1–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga0–1
SV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · SV Werder Bremen in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 059 matchesSV Werder Bremen9 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals9/91.34 xG/match
12.8 shots/match ▲Shots9/911.3 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 4.44 shots/match
50% ●Possession9/948.6%
5.22 corners/match ●Corners9/93 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards9/92.89 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls9/99.11 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05SV Werder Bremen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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