PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen
Shots10 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners2 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible away split

moderate

Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 4 · 5 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.44 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/91.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/911.3 shots/match
14.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/916.6 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲4.44 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95.67 shots/match
50%Possessionseason · 9/948.6%
5.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/93 corners/match
3.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.56 corners/match
2.67 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 9/92.89 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99.11 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲33%
56%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0558.3
Werder Bremen47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0527.8
Werder Bremen34.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0539.8
Werder Bremen14.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0547.2
Werder Bremen8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0580.6
Werder Bremen47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0561.1
Werder Bremen2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0550.7
Werder Bremen15.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/511.2 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
48.8%Possession5/547.6%
4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.44 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots9/911.3 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.44 shots/match
50%Possession9/948.6%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/93 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards9/92.89 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls9/99.11 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.44 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots9/911.3 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.44 shots/match
50%Possession9/948.6%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/93 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards9/92.89 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls9/99.11 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
49%Possession5/546.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.83 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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