PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig 3–1 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 3–1.

Shots
1614
Shots on target
94
Expected goals
2.091.49
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat VfB Stuttgart 3–1. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – VfB Stuttgart): shots 16–14, shots on target 9–4, expected goals 2.09–1.49, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

weak

RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.11 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsRB Leipzig · VfB Stuttgart15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match15.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.78 corners/matchCornersRB Leipzig · VfB Stuttgart● 6.11 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigVfB StuttgartBaseline
Corners5.78 corners/match6.11 corners/match5.06 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots14 shotsRB Leipzig 16 shots, VfB Stuttgart 14 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots4 shotsRB Leipzig 9 shots, VfB Stuttgart 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.09 xG1.49 xGRB Leipzig 2.09 xG, VfB Stuttgart 1.49 xG
  • Possession42%58%RB Leipzig 42%, VfB Stuttgart 58%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersRB Leipzig 5 corners, VfB Stuttgart 5 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls10 foulsRB Leipzig 8 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsRB Leipzig 1 card, VfB Stuttgart 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 7′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 18′ · 0.01 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedConrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAssan Ouédraogo · RB Leipzig · 30′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAssan Ouédraogo · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuca Jaquez · VfB Stuttgart · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 13′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYan Diomande · RB Leipzig · 53′ · 0.07 xG · goalRidle Baku · RB Leipzig · 87′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 32′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 42′ · 0.08 xG · on targetRômulo · RB Leipzig · 41′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYan Diomande · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRidle Baku · RB Leipzig · 2′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 5′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 25′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 10′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.14 xG · goalRômulo · RB Leipzig · 81′ · 0.15 xG · on targetDavid Raum · RB Leipzig · 3′ · 0.24 xG · on targetRômulo · RB Leipzig · 33′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedRômulo · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.62 xG · goalTiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart · 65′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RB Leipzig: 17 shots, 10 on target, 2.23 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jeff Chabot · RB Leipzig · 45′Yan Diomande · RB Leipzig · 53′Rômulo · RB Leipzig · 90′Tiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RB Leipzig 2.23 xG · VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2RB Leipzig
0Draws
3VfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–3
VfB Stuttgart — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–1
VfB Stuttgart — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga5–2
RB Leipzig — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga5–1
RB Leipzig — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig9 matchesVfB Stuttgart9 matches
2.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/91.56 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.11 goals/match
1.92 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.49 xG/match
15.8 shots/matchShots9/915.4 shots/match
5.22 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 5.67 shots/match
48%Possession9/9● 59%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/9● 6.11 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls9/910.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRB LeipzigVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headRB Leipzig — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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