PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRB LeipzigVfB Stuttgart
Shots16 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession42%58%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

weak

RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.11 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsRB Leipzig · VfB Stuttgart15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match15.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.78 corners/match▲CornersRB Leipzig · VfB Stuttgart6.11 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigVfB StuttgartBaseline
Corners5.78 corners/match6.11 corners/match5.06 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 3 · 7 too close

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.56 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/91.11 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/915.4 shots/match
14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲11.8 shots/match
5.22 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲5.67 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/94.22 shots/match
48%Possessionseason · 9/959%
5.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/96.11 corners/match
4.56 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.33 corners/match
1.56 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 9/91.89 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/910.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/944%
89%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig41.7
VfB Stuttgart91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig86.1
VfB Stuttgart80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig68.5
VfB Stuttgart77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig91.7
VfB Stuttgart58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig16.7
VfB Stuttgart34.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig77.8
VfB Stuttgart97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig70.2
VfB Stuttgart78.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.2 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target5/56 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/559.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.56 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/matchShots9/915.4 shots/match
5.22 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.67 shots/match
48%Possession9/959%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/96.11 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls9/910.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.56 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/matchShots9/915.4 shots/match
5.22 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.67 shots/match
48%Possession9/959%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/96.11 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls9/910.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 5 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/51.6 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots4/514.4 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/54.8 shots/match
50.5%Possession4/560.6%
5.25 corners/matchCorners4/56.6 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/52 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls4/511.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.92 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRB LeipzigVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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