PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUnion BerlinBayern München
Shots12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession26%74%
Corners6 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

32.6%▲PossessionUnion Berlin · Bayern München65%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 32.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession32.6%65%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsUnion Berlin · Bayern München18.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match18.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.5 shots/match8.7 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season3.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match3.5 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 9 · 5 too close

1.3 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲3.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲18.9 shots/match
14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲8.7 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲8.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲2 shots/match
32.6%Possessionseason · 10/1065%
5.3 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.7 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.4 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/102.5 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1010.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲60%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin29.6
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin38.9
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2
Bayern München80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin79.2
Bayern München50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin63.9
Bayern München83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin51.4
Bayern München77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
33.6%Possession5/567.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.4 shots/match
32.6%Possession10/1065%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.4 shots/match
32.6%Possession10/1065%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/5▲3 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots6/5▲17.8 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target6/5▲7.6 shots/match
33.5%Possession6/567.4%
6 corners/matchCorners6/55.2 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards6/53 cards/match
16.8 fouls/matchFouls6/59.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUnion BerlinBayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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