PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Stadion An der Alten Försterei

1. FC Union Berlin 2–2 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin and FC Bayern München drew 2–2.

Shots
1212
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
0.81.41
Possession
26%74%

Full time

What the match recorded

Union Berlin and Bayern München drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Union Berlin – Bayern München): shots 12–12, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 0.8–1.41, possession 26%–74%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

32.6%PossessionUnion Berlin · Bayern München● 65%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 32.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession32.6%65%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsUnion Berlin · Bayern München18.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match18.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.5 shots/match8.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season3.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match3.5 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots12 shots1. FC Union Berlin 12 shots, FC Bayern München 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shots1. FC Union Berlin 4 shots, FC Bayern München 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.8 xG1.41 xG1. FC Union Berlin 0.8 xG, FC Bayern München 1.41 xG
  • Possession26%74%1. FC Union Berlin 26%, FC Bayern München 74%
  • Corners6 corners5 corners1. FC Union Berlin 6 corners, FC Bayern München 5 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls8 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 8 fouls, FC Bayern München 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cards1. FC Union Berlin 2 cards, FC Bayern München 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jonathan Tah · Bayern München · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJosip Juranović · Union Berlin · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJanik Haberer · Union Berlin · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 38′ · 0.03 xG · goalAljoscha Kemlein · Union Berlin · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 44′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMichael Olise · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 27′ · 0.06 xG · goalHarry Kane · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJanik Haberer · Union Berlin · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTom Rothe · Union Berlin · 8′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 60′ · 0.09 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 33′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · Union Berlin · 9′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.25 xG · goalDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 83′ · 0.27 xG · goalLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.55 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Union Berlin: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.81 xG. Bayern München: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.30 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Danilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 27′Danilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 83′Luis Díaz · Bayern München · 38′Harry Kane · Bayern München · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Union Berlin 0.81 xG · Bayern München 1.30 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Union Berlin
1Draws
4FC Bayern München
1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–1
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–0
1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–5
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–0
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin10 matchesFC Bayern München10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 3.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 0.6 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 2.65 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 18.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 8.4 shots/match
32.6%Possession10/10● 65%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/10● 5.7 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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