PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUnion BerlinSC Freiburg
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession37%63%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls20 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards6 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: SC Freiburg have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.22 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

SC Freiburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

33.3%▲PossessionUnion Berlin · SC Freiburg48.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinSC FreiburgBaseline
Possession33.3%48.9%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 7 · 6 too close

1.22 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/91.22 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.44 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/911.7 shots/match
14.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲12.6 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/93.44 shots/match
5.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲4 shots/match
33.3%Possessionseason · 9/948.9%
5.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/93.89 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲3.44 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲1.89 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲33%
44%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8
SC Freiburg52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin31.5
SC Freiburg23.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin32.4
SC Freiburg67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2
SC Freiburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin86.1
SC Freiburg16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin61.1
SC Freiburg13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin53.5
SC Freiburg11.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/52.8 shots/match
35.2%Possession5/547%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
17 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots9/911.7 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on target9/93.44 shots/match
33.3%Possession9/948.9%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/93.89 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls9/99 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots9/911.7 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on target9/93.44 shots/match
33.3%Possession9/948.9%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/93.89 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls9/99 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
35%Possession5/548%
6 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
3.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
18.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUnion BerlinSC Freiburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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