PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025PreZero Arena

TSG Hoffenheim 1–4 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

1–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–4.

Shots
1218
Shots on target
410
Expected goals
0.753.04
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München beat 1899 Hoffenheim 4–1. Recorded in this match (1899 Hoffenheim – Bayern München): shots 12–18, shots on target 4–10, expected goals 0.75–3.04, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲Shots1899 Hoffenheim · Bayern München19.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12 shots/match19.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match10.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.5%Possession1899 Hoffenheim · Bayern München● 63.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession48.5%63.5%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots18 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 12 shots, FC Bayern München 18 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots10 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 4 shots, FC Bayern München 10 shots
  • Expected goals0.75 xG3.04 xGTSG Hoffenheim 0.75 xG, FC Bayern München 3.04 xG
  • Possession38%62%TSG Hoffenheim 38%, FC Bayern München 62%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 5 corners, FC Bayern München 5 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls9 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 17 fouls, FC Bayern München 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsTSG Hoffenheim 1 card, FC Bayern München 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 41′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 14′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBazoumana Touré · 1899 Hoffenheim · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 16′ · 0.03 xG · on targetVladimír Coufal · 1899 Hoffenheim · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBernardo · 1899 Hoffenheim · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · Bayern München · 32′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSacha Boey · Bayern München · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetWouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 13′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 35′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlbian Hajdari · 1899 Hoffenheim · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVladimír Coufal · 1899 Hoffenheim · 82′ · 0.05 xG · goalLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalHarry Kane · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMuhammed Damar · 1899 Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 44′ · 0.10 xG · goalLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 55′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGrischa Prömel · 1899 Hoffenheim · 80′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 23′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 13′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 48′ · 0.82 xG · goalHarry Kane · Bayern München · 77′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1899 Hoffenheim: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.86 xG. Bayern München: 18 shots, 10 on target, 3.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Vladimír Coufal · 1899 Hoffenheim · 82′Harry Kane · Bayern München · 44′Harry Kane · Bayern München · 48′Harry Kane · Bayern München · 77′Serge Gnabry · Bayern München · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1899 Hoffenheim 0.86 xG · Bayern München 3.06 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1TSG Hoffenheim
1Draws
3FC Bayern München
TSG Hoffenheim — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–4
FC Bayern München — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga5–0
TSG Hoffenheim — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga4–2
FC Bayern München — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga3–0
FC Bayern München — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim4 matchesFC Bayern München4 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 4.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 0.75 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 2.86 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 19.8 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 10.5 shots/match
48.5%Possession4/4● 63.5%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/4● 5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG HoffenheimFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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