PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timePreZero ArenaFull-time recap
1–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1899 HoffenheimBayern München
Shots13 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Possession38%62%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match▲Shots1899 Hoffenheim · Bayern München19.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match19.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match11 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.5%▲Possession1899 Hoffenheim · Bayern München63.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession48.5%63.5%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1899 Hoffenheim favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 0 · 14 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/44.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/40.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/419.8 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/411 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/410.5 shots/match
6.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/42.5 shots/match
48.5%Possessionseason · 4/463.5%
3.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/45 corners/match
6.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/45 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/43 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/411 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/450%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1899 Hoffenheim33.3
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1899 Hoffenheim56.5
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1899 Hoffenheim27.8
Bayern München91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1899 Hoffenheim36.1
Bayern München86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim65.2
Bayern München62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim22.2
Bayern München50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1899 Hoffenheim57.6
Bayern München73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲4.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲19.8 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲10.5 shots/match
48.5%Possession4/463.5%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/45 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲4.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲19.8 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲10.5 shots/match
48.5%Possession4/463.5%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/45 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲4.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲19.8 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲10.5 shots/match
48.5%Possession4/463.5%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/45 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1899 HoffenheimBayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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