Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeWWK ArenaFull-time recap

FC Augsburg

WLL

1–4Full-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

LDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Augsburg	FSV Mainz 05
Shots	18 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Possession	61%	39%
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13 shots/match▲ShotsFC Augsburg · FSV Mainz 0515.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Augsburg	FSV Mainz 05	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	13.2 shots/match
Shots against	15.3 shots/match	15 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 0 · 14 too close

1.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.25 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

13 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/415.3 shots/match

15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/415 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/42.75 shots/match

6.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/43.25 shots/match

46.5%Possessionseason · 4/451.5%

4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/46.75 corners/match

4.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/44.25 corners/match

3.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42.5 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/410.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg25

FSV Mainz 0566.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg46.3

FSV Mainz 0535.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg18.5

FSV Mainz 0569.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg63.9

FSV Mainz 0569.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg88.9

FSV Mainz 0550

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg41.7

FSV Mainz 0591.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg56.2

FSV Mainz 0554.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13 shots/matchShots4/4▲15.3 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match

46.5%Possession4/451.5%

4.75 corners/matchCorners4/46.75 corners/match

3.25 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13 shots/matchShots4/4▲15.3 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match

46.5%Possession4/451.5%

4.75 corners/matchCorners4/46.75 corners/match

3.25 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13 shots/matchShots4/4▲15.3 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match

46.5%Possession4/451.5%

4.75 corners/matchCorners4/46.75 corners/match

3.25 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards2/2—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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