Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

LD

0–1Full-time recap

RB Leipzig

LW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	RB Leipzig
Shots	13 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	3 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsFSV Mainz 05 · RB Leipzig16.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	RB Leipzig	Baseline
Shots	16.3 shots/match	16.7 shots/match	13.3 shots/match
Shots against	14 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 0 · 14 too close

0.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/32 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

16.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/316.7 shots/match

14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/312.3 shots/match

2.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/33 shots/match

2.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/35 shots/match

55.7%Possessionseason · 3/349%

7 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/34.67 corners/match

3.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/33.67 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/31 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/310.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/367%

33%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/367%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0571.4

RB Leipzig35.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0538.1

RB Leipzig47.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0569

RB Leipzig46.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0567.9

RB Leipzig89.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0550

RB Leipzig17.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0596.4

RB Leipzig39.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0562.5

RB Leipzig46.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches

0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.3 shots/matchShots3/316.7 shots/match

2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3 shots/match

55.7%Possession3/349%

7 corners/matchCorners3/34.67 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/31 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls3/310.3 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches

0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.3 shots/matchShots3/316.7 shots/match

2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3 shots/match

55.7%Possession3/349%

7 corners/matchCorners3/34.67 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/31 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls3/310.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches

0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.3 shots/matchShots3/316.7 shots/match

2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3 shots/match

55.7%Possession3/349%

7 corners/matchCorners3/34.67 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/31 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls3/310.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards2/2—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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