PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC HeidenheimBorussia Dortmund
Shots6 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession25%75%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

1. FC Heidenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

6 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · Borussia Dortmund12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimBorussia DortmundBaseline
Shots6 shots/match12 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match9.67 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

36%▲Possession1. FC Heidenheim · Borussia Dortmund63%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 27.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimBorussia DortmundBaseline
Possession36%63%51.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 0 · 14 too close

0.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/32.67 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/31 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
6 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/312 shots/match
17 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/39.67 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/37 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/33.67 shots/match
36%Possessionseason · 3/363%
3.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/33.33 corners/match
4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/35.33 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/32.33 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/311.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/367%
33%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/3100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim10.7
Borussia Dortmund89.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3
Borussia Dortmund66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim17.8
Borussia Dortmund85.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim3.6
Borussia Dortmund17.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim53.6
Borussia Dortmund55.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim14.3
Borussia Dortmund14.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim10.7
Borussia Dortmund49.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches
0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6 shots/matchShots3/3▲12 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲7 shots/match
36%Possession3/363%
3.33 corners/matchCorners3/33.33 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches
0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6 shots/matchShots3/3▲12 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲7 shots/match
36%Possession3/363%
3.33 corners/matchCorners3/33.33 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches
0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6 shots/matchShots3/3▲12 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲7 shots/match
36%Possession3/363%
3.33 corners/matchCorners3/33.33 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC HeidenheimBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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